FNUS75 KBOU 032144 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR WEST CREEK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 332 PM MDT MON OCT 3 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND VARIABLE WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH BUT ONLY LIMITED RAINFALL. IT WILL BE WARM AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-63. MIN HUMIDITY........30-33%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 3-7 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......9000-10000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-43. MAX HUMIDITY........54-57%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 4-7 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST 9-13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12-16 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST AROUND 8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7600 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-62. MIN HUMIDITY........30-33%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-11 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 7600-8600 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR WEST CREEK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/03-15 64 28 8 63 28 SE12 18 2 4 SW21 10178 S14 118890 V 10/03-16 61 28 8 63 29 SE12 18 2 4 SW17 9342 S15 115822 V 10/03-17 61 28 8 62 30 SE12 17 3 4 SW15 8507 S15 112753 V 10/03-18 61 28 8 60 32 S10 16 3 4 SW13 7672 S16 109684 V 10/03-19 61 28 8 56 36 SE 9 15 3 4 S13 5420 S15 76541 G 10/03-20 61 28 8 53 40 SE 8 14 2 4 S14 3169 SE14 43397 F 10/03-21 61 28 8 52 43 SE 8 13 2 4 S17 917 SE13 10253 P 10/03-22 61 28 8 50 45 S 8 14 2 4 S21 722 S12 7660 P 10/03-23 61 28 8 49 46 W 9 15 2 4 S24 526 SW10 5066 P 10/04-00 43 10 2 47 49 W10 16 2 1 S28 331 W 8 2472 P 10/04-01 43 10 2 46 52 W12 17 2 1 S29 294 W 9 2246 P 10/04-02 43 10 2 45 54 W12 18 2 1 S30 258 W 9 2020 P 10/04-03 43 10 2 44 56 W12 18 2 1 S29 221 W 9 1794 P 10/04-04 43 10 2 44 56 W12 17 2 1 S26 225 W 9 1845 P 10/04-05 43 10 2 43 55 W10 16 2 1 S24 228 W 9 1895 P 10/04-06 42 10 2 43 55 W 9 15 2 1 S22 232 W 9 1946 P 10/04-07 42 10 2 44 51 W 8 14 2 1 S20 860 W12 11206 P 10/04-08 42 10 2 47 46 W 8 8 2 1 SW18 1489 W14 20466 P 10/04-09 42 10 2 51 39 W 7 7 2 1 SW17 2117 W16 29727 P 10/04-10 42 10 2 55 34 W 7 7 2 1 SW18 3948 W15 50187 F 10/04-11 42 10 2 57 32 SW 7 7 3 1 SW21 5779 SW15 70648 G 10/04-12 70 32 11 59 30 SW 7 7 3 4 SW23 7609 SW14 91108 G 10/04-13 70 32 11 60 30 SW 8 13 3 4 SW22 7968 SW13 91117 G 10/04-14 70 32 11 60 31 SW 9 14 2 4 SW21 8327 S13 91125 G 10/04-15 70 32 11 61 32 SW 9 15 2 4 S20 8686 S12 91134 G 10/04-16 70 32 11 60 34 SW 8 13 2 4 S20 8075 S12 84726 G 10/04-17 70 32 11 59 37 SW 7 7 2 4 S20 7463 S12 78318 G 10/04-18 67 30 9 58 39 SW 6 6 2 4 S20 6852 S12 71910 G 10/04-19 67 30 9 54 45 SW 7 7 2 4 S20 5252 S12 54629 F 10/04-20 67 30 9 51 49 W 9 14 2 4 S20 3653 SW12 37347 P 10/04-21 67 30 9 50 51 W12 18 2 4 S20 2053 SW12 20066 P 10/04-22 67 30 9 48 53 W14 22 2 4 S20 1676 SW15 19529 P 10/04-23 67 30 9 47 54 W15 24 2 4 S21 1298 SW20 18991 P 10/05-00 55 0 0 46 56 W16 25 2 1 S22 920 W23 18452 P 10/05-01 55 0 0 45 57 W15 24 2 1 S25 739 W20 13559 P 10/05-02 55 0 0 44 60 W14 22 2 1 S29 557 W15 8665 P 10/05-03 55 0 0 43 61 W12 18 2 1 S31 376 W12 3772 P 10/05-04 55 0 0 42 62 W10 10 2 1 S29 354 W10 3236 P 10/05-05 55 0 0 42 63 W 9 9 2 1 S25 333 W 9 2700 P 10/05-06 57 0 0 42 63 W 9 9 2 1 S22 311 W 8 2165 P 10/05-07 57 0 0 43 58 W 9 9 2 1 S21 1249 W 8 8102 P 10/05-08 57 0 0 44 53 W10 10 2 1 S21 2187 SW 8 14039 P 10/05-09 57 0 0 47 46 W10 10 2 1 S22 3125 SW 7 19976 P 10/05-10 57 0 0 50 40 W10 10 2 1 S23 4035 SW 8 29950 P 10/05-11 57 0 0 51 37 W10 10 2 1 S24 4944 SW 9 39923 P 10/05-12 56 30 9 53 35 W 9 9 2 4 S25 5853 SW10 49897 F 10/05-13 56 30 9 53 35 SW 7 7 2 4 S26 6328 SW 9 48586 F 10/05-14 56 30 9 54 36 S 5 5 2 4 S26 6803 SW 8 47275 F 10/05-15 56 30 9 54 37 S 3 3 2 4 S25 7278 SW 7 45964 F 10/05-16 56 30 9 53 39 S 3 3 2 4 S22 6618 S 7 42553 F 10/05-17 56 30 9 53 42 SE 5 5 2 4 S17 5958 S 8 39142 P 10/05-18 56 30 9 52 44 SE 6 6 2 4 S14 5298 S 8 35731 P 10/05-19 56 30 9 49 49 S 7 7 2 4 S14 4147 S 8 29178 P 10/05-20 56 30 9 47 52 SW 8 8 2 4 S16 2996 SW 9 22624 P 10/05-21 56 30 9 46 52 W 9 9 2 4 S18 1845 SW10 16071 P 10/05-22 56 30 9 44 53 W 9 9 2 4 S23 1513 SW10 13511 P 10/05-23 56 30 9 44 53 W10 10 2 4 SW28 1182 SW10 10951 P 10/06-00 32 0 0 42 53 W10 10 2 1 SW33 851 SW12 8392 P 10/06-01 32 0 0 42 54 W10 10 2 1 SW37 770 SW12 7379 P 10/06-02 32 0 0 41 55 W12 12 2 1 SW39 689 SW10 6366 P 10/06-03 32 0 0 40 56 SW12 18 2 1 SW41 608 S10 5354 P 10/06-04 32 0 0 40 56 SW12 18 2 1 SW44 607 SW10 5681 P 10/06-05 32 0 0 40 56 W12 18 2 1 SW46 606 SW12 6008 P 10/06-06 32 0 0 39 56 W12 18 2 1 SW47 605 SW12 6336 P 10/06-07 32 0 0 40 54 SW10 10 2 1 SW47 1515 SW14 20897 P 10/06-08 32 0 0 43 48 SW 9 9 2 1 S46 2426 S15 35459 P 10/06-09 32 0 0 48 40 SW 8 8 2 1 S46 3337 S17 50021 F 10/06-10 32 0 0 51 35 S 9 9 2 1 S46 4641 S18 79072 G 10/06-11 32 0 0 53 32 S10 10 2 1 S46 5946 S21 108124 V 10/06-12 59 30 9 55 31 SE12 18 2 4 S47 7250 S22 137175 V 10/06-13 59 30 9 56 31 SE13 20 2 4 S49 7568 S24 156163 E 10/06-14 59 30 9 56 32 SE14 21 2 4 SW51 7886 S25 175150 E 10/06-15 59 30 9 57 32 SE14 22 2 4 SW51 8204 S28 194138 E 10/06-16 59 30 9 56 34 S14 23 2 4 S49 7434 S29 182854 E 10/06-17 59 30 9 55 37 S14 23 3 4 S46 6664 S30 171569 E 10/06-18 59 30 9 53 39 S14 22 3 4 S43 5893 S31 160285 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...DOUG WATRY IC REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20111003.WESTC.01/BOU