FNUS75 KMSO 030159
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR DICK CREEK EMB
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
759 PM MDT SUN OCT 2 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MDT ON OCTOBER 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE IMPACT ON THE FIRE. A SURFACE THERMAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE FIRE WILL ACT AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM A MOISTURE
AND UNSTABLE AIR MOVE INTO WESTERN MONTANA. WINDS WILL BE
DIURNALLY/TERRAIN DRIVEN MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT THE ONSET OF
SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS WITH POTENTIAL
SPEEDS TO 30 MPH. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
MOISTEN...THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE WITH
WETTING RAINS LIKELY IN THE EVENING. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...BUT RECENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN GOOD
RECOVERIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. TUESDAY WILL SEE MORE RAIN WITH
HUMIDITIES STAYING HIGH.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73 BOTTOM...62-67 TOP.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-27 PERCENT BOTTOM...32-37 PERCENT TOP.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE 3-5 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 7-10 MPH
                    ERRATIC WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH NEAR STORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 15 MPH.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

CWR.................50 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
MAX HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING DOWNSLOPE 2-5 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

CWR.................50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE 2-5 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...MEAD
REQUESTED BY...JAREL KURTZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111003.DICKC.01/MSO