FNUS75 KMSO 031651
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR KELLYS RIDGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1051 AM MDT MON OCT 3 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MDT ON OCTOBER 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER DESPITE THE CLOUDS...HUMIDITY READINGS SHOULD FALL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE. BUT THIS WILL
ALSO COME AROUND THE SAME TIME AS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS TO INCREASE (AFTER AROUND 400PM MST). THE BURN
LOCATION FALLS UNDER AN APPARENT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT LEADING TO A HIGHER
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL COME ON TUESDAY AND EVEN MORE SO ON
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE BURN.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-26 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 3-5 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-8
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 15 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWN SLOPE/DOWN VALLEY 2-4 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTH 5 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................70 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 1-3 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DICKERSON
REQUESTED BY...ART TRAHAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111003.KELLY.01/MSO