FNUS75 KPUB 011342 FWSPUB SPOT FORECAST FOR TROUT CREEK RX...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 742 AM MDT SAT OCT 1 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE BURN SITE. MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. PRIMARY STORM HAZARDS WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY DRAW OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO. THIS WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BURN SITE EACH DAY...WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND LIGHTNING THE PRIMARY THREATS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST OVER THE SITE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND MOVES ACROSS COLORADO. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD CHANCE THAT NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE BURN SITE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO A COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY SUNNY (50 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79F. MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5-10 MPH UNTIL 1000... THEN BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 10000 FT AGL AFTER 1100. TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. FAIR AFTER 1400. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY (30 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47F. MAX HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5-10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 500 FT AGL AFTER 2100. TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 10 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79F. MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5-10 MPH UNTIL 1000... THEN BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 13000 FT AGL AFTER 1100. TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN NORTHEAST AROUND 4 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. FAIR AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2. OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY...SIMILAR TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST. HOWEVER... UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE OVERALL WIND REGIME STILL LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW. $$ FORECASTER...WALROD REQUESTED BY...PUEBLO DISPATCH TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111003.TROUT.02/PUB