FNUS75 KRIW 041049
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR ASPEN CREEK FIRE...BRIDGER-TETON NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
449 AM MDT TUE OCT 4 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1943 MDT ON OCTOBER 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER OR NEAR THE FIRE AFTER 1200. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE CONTINUOUS WHICH MEANS THERE WILL BE DRY HOURS
BETWEEN ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS
TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH THE SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM NOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...ROSS

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS.
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 7 MPH UNTIL 1200.
                    SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO 18 MPH.

                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 1200.
                    SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER 1200
                    WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.15 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500-4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL 1200.
                    SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH AFTER 1200.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR...INCREASING TO GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90.

20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH AT 7 TO 12 MPH UNTIL 2000.
                    THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 9 MPH AFTER 2000.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH UNTIL 2100.
                    THEN SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER 2100.

LAL.................2 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH UNTIL 2100.
                    SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER 2100.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING POOR BY MIDNIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON
                    WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH AT 4 TO 8 MPH UNTIL 1200.
                    SOUTH AT 7 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
                    AFTER 1200.

                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON TO 30 MPH.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 1200.
                    SOUTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
                    AFTER 1200.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.40 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 4500-5500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH UNTIL 1200.
                    SOUTH AROUND 20 MPH AFTER 1200.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 9000 FEET LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS IN THE 30S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.

.THURSDAY...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ALL
SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET. LOWS IN THE 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ROSS
REQUESTED BY...ASPEN FEMO
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20111003.ASPEN.01/RIW