FNUS75 KRIW 031554
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR CARTER MTN RX...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
954 AM MDT MON OCT 3 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0940 MDT ON OCTOBER 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ARRIVES ACROSS BURN SITE. THIS ADDED MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE THREATS OF
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING. TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE THE WARMEST AND DRIEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK. AN APPROACHING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
POTENTIALLY INTO WYOMING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS BY THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRANHAM

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) AFTER 1200.
                    ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-65 BELOW 8500 FT....56-61 ABOVE 8500 FT.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-24 PERCENT BELOW 8500 FT...23-27 ABOVE
                    8500 FT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    SOUTHEAST BY 1400.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.6 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8000-9000 FT AGL
                    BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (45200-87000 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 2100. ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45 TO 49 BELOW 8500 FT...42-45 ABOVE 8500 FT.
MAX HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT ALL LEVELS.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTY BY 2000. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.3 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 2200-2700 FT AGL BY 0200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 22 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (45200-81600 KNOT-FT).

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) BY 1100.
                    ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-60 BELOW 8500 FT...52-56 ABOVE 8500 FT.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-28 PERCENT ALL LEVELS.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 12 TO 17. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.3 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100-5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO VERY GOOD (62700-103300 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS AROUND 50. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...COLDER. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 40. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BRANHAM
REQUESTED BY...TRAVIS BRATEN
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111003.CARTE.01/RIW