FNUS75 KRIW 031034
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR PHELPS MORAINE...NPS GTP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
434 AM MDT MON OCT 3 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON OCTOBER 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A DRIER AND WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FIRE TODAY...THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LINGER
FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER WILL BEGIN
TUESDAY AS THE FIRST WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WESTERN WYOMING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES. A MUCH MORE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL PLOW INTO THE
NORTHWEST U.S. ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING GOOD CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY
THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MEUNIER

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) IN THE MORNING.
                    BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
                    AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-74.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4 TO 8 MPH THROUGH 1000.
                    BECOMING SOUTH BETWEEN 1000 AND NOON AND
                    INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25
                    MPH BETWEEN 1200 AND 1400. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.3 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...INCREASING TO
                    7400-8400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING...INCREASING
                    AROUND 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH 1000...INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 2100. ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-81 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY
                    4-8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600-6600 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...DECREASING TO BELOW
                    1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD THROUGH 2000...DECREASING TO POOR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-65.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-36 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTH 10 TO
                    15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 25 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.12 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...INCREASING TO
                    5200-6200 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH 1000 INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MEUNIER
REQUESTED BY...PHELPS MORAINE BURN BOSS
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111003.PHELP.01/RIW