FNUS75 KRIW 031402
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH HORSE CREEK...IA TDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
802 AM MDT MON OCT 3 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0735 MDT ON OCTOBER 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVER THE FIRE THIS MORNING AS WEAK
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY OVER WESTERN WYOMING UNDER THE
CURRENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FIRE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY...ERRATIC WIND BEING THE
EXPECTED THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TODAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST AND DRIEST DAY FOR THE THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AS
AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THIS WEEK. THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR
AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AS IT ADVANCES...RESULTING IN COOLER DAYS
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED. CURRENT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN RAIN AND SNOW MIX TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS RESULTING MORE DOMINANCE OF SNOWFALL.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRANHAM

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) BY 1200. SCATTERED
                    RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-66.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-34 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 5 TO 10 INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY
                    1300. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.6 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-3800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7000-8200 FT AGL
                    BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 16 TO 21 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (48100 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (115500 KNOT-FT) BY 1500.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
                    2100...THEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.
MAX HUMIDITY........81-86 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 12. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 18 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.7 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1600-2100 FT AGL BY 0200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (91800 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (28400
                    KNOT-FT) BY 0200.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-59.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-45 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTH 10 TO
                    15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH BY 1100.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 22 MPH
                    BY 1500.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.35 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 3200-4200 FT AGL BY
                    1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 20 INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH BY
                    1400.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (41500-87700 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 50. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BRANHAM
REQUESTED BY...GARY HAYWARD
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20111003.SOUTH.01/RIW