FNUS73 KAPX 041531
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR BOEALOO...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1131 AM EDT TUE OCT 4 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON OCTOBER 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SUN-FILLED SKIES AND A MILD OCTOBER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WEST TO SOUTHWEST LAKE
INFLUENCED WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BURN SITE...UNTIL EVENING WHEN WINDS
BACK A TOUCH MORE SOUTHERLY. LAKE MOISTURE SHOULD HELP RH VALUES SOME...
WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 40S. GOOD RH RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND COOLING TEMPERATURES.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........60 AT IGNITION...MAX 65.
RH..................51 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 46 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 800-1000 FT
                    AGL.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100) AT IGNITION. MAX...POOR (100).

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........11  11  13  13  13  15
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............60  61  63  64  63  63
RH..............51  51  56  54  56  56
20 FT WIND DIR..W   W   W   W   SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..5   6   6   6   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   4
SMOKE DISP......100 100 100 100 100 100

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 51.
RH..................MAX 83 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-300 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........MIN 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........15  15  18  18  18  18  18  18  10  10  10  10
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............60  57  58  56  55  55  54  54  53  53  53  52
RH..............62  67  64  72  74  77  80  77  80  80  80  83
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..5   6   6   6   5   4   4   3   3   3   2   2
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  5   5   5   5   5
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SMOKE DISP......0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

$$
FORECASTER...MIKE BOGUTH
REQUESTED BY...DAN MORFORD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111004.BOEAL.01/APX