FNUS75 KBOU 041120 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR HORSETOOTH RX...NATURE CONSERVANCY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 515 AM MDT TUE OCT 4 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. THERE WILL BE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND LIGHTER WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 1400...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....79. MIN HUMIDITY........20%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN SOUTH 7-14 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...THEN 2400-3400 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 6800-7800 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 10800-11800 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 9200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN VERY GOOD AFTER 1400. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....49. MAX HUMIDITY........71%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 7-12 MPH UNTIL 2400. SOUTHEAST 5-6 MPH AFTER 0300. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8-16 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST 0-4 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7600 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...QUICKLY DECREASING TO BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....65. MIN HUMIDITY........32%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN SOUTH 11-17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 1-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 5800-6800 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1400. FAIR AFTER 1700. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 7 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS AROUND 60. WEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR HORSETOOTH RX. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/04-05 24 0 0 55 44 W 3 3 3 1 S17 168 W 2 377 P 10/04-06 13 0 0 54 46 W 3 3 3 1 SW16 177 W 2 300 P 10/04-07 13 0 0 55 48 W 2 2 3 1 SW16 1455 W 3 9655 P 10/04-08 13 0 0 57 47 SW 2 2 3 1 SW16 2733 W 6 19011 P 10/04-09 13 0 0 69 32 SW 2 2 3 1 SW16 4011 SW 8 28366 P 10/04-10 13 0 0 73 27 SW 3 3 3 1 SW16 6223 SW 8 45126 F 10/04-11 21 0 0 75 25 S 6 10 3 1 SW16 8435 SW 8 61886 G 10/04-12 35 24 5 76 23 SE 7 11 3 3 SW16 10646 SW 8 78646 G 10/04-13 48 24 5 77 22 SE 8 12 3 3 SW16 11147 SW 9 93999 G 10/04-14 59 24 5 78 21 SE 9 14 3 3 SW16 11648 S10 109352 V 10/04-15 69 24 5 79 21 SE 9 14 3 3 SW17 12149 S12 124705 V 10/04-16 69 24 5 78 22 S10 15 3 3 S18 10644 S13 115683 V 10/04-17 69 24 5 78 22 S10 15 3 3 S20 9138 S14 106662 V 10/04-18 73 16 3 73 28 SW10 16 3 3 S21 7633 S15 97640 G 10/04-19 73 16 3 64 39 W10 15 3 3 S25 5380 S15 68992 G 10/04-20 73 16 3 60 45 NW 9 15 3 3 S29 3128 W15 40343 F 10/04-21 73 16 3 57 49 NW 9 14 3 3 S31 876 W15 11695 P 10/04-22 73 16 3 57 49 NW 9 9 3 3 S28 683 W13 8303 P 10/04-23 73 16 3 55 53 W 8 8 3 3 SW23 491 W 9 4912 P 10/05-00 54 4 1 55 54 SW 8 8 3 1 SW18 298 SW 6 1520 P 10/05-01 54 4 1 53 61 SW 7 7 3 1 SW15 270 SW 5 1200 P 10/05-02 54 4 1 51 67 S 7 7 3 1 SW13 241 W 3 881 P 10/05-03 52 4 1 50 71 S 6 6 3 1 S13 213 W 3 561 P 10/05-04 52 4 1 50 66 SE 5 5 3 1 S14 207 W 2 402 P 10/05-05 52 4 1 50 63 SE 5 5 3 1 S16 202 CALM 244 P 10/05-06 52 0 0 49 61 E 3 3 3 1 S17 196 CALM 85 P 10/05-07 52 0 0 49 58 SE 3 3 3 1 S18 860 CALM 1882 P 10/05-08 52 0 0 51 54 S 2 2 3 1 S18 1523 SW 2 3679 P 10/05-09 52 0 0 59 39 S 2 2 3 1 S18 2187 SW 3 5476 P 10/05-10 52 0 0 63 34 S 3 3 3 1 S21 3380 SW 3 13761 P 10/05-11 52 0 0 65 32 SE 6 6 3 1 S22 4572 S 5 22046 P 10/05-12 64 28 8 65 32 SE 8 13 3 4 S21 5765 S 6 30331 P 10/05-13 64 28 8 65 32 SE 8 14 3 4 S17 6250 S 7 35806 P 10/05-14 64 28 8 65 33 SE 8 14 3 4 SW13 6735 S 7 41282 F 10/05-15 64 28 8 65 34 SE 9 15 3 4 SW10 7220 S 7 46757 F 10/05-16 64 28 8 65 35 S14 21 3 4 SW12 6835 S 9 52674 F 10/05-17 64 28 8 65 36 SW17 28 3 4 S15 6449 SW10 58592 F 10/05-18 64 10 2 65 37 W20 31 3 2 S18 6064 SW13 64509 G 10/05-19 64 10 2 61 42 W16 26 3 2 S20 4191 W10 43892 F 10/05-20 64 10 2 58 47 W10 17 3 2 S20 2318 W 9 23275 P 10/05-21 64 10 2 57 50 W 6 6 3 2 S21 446 W 7 2658 P 10/05-22 64 10 2 55 53 SW 5 5 3 2 S22 403 W 6 2013 P 10/05-23 64 10 2 54 54 SE 3 3 2 2 S23 361 W 5 1369 P 10/06-00 31 0 0 53 57 E 3 3 2 1 S25 318 W 2 724 P 10/06-01 31 0 0 52 59 E 2 2 2 1 S29 299 W 2 688 P 10/06-02 31 0 0 51 60 CALM 1 3 1 SW32 280 W 2 651 P 10/06-03 31 0 0 50 61 CALM 1 3 1 SW36 261 W 2 615 P 10/06-04 31 0 0 49 61 NE 2 2 3 1 SW39 277 W 3 997 P 10/06-05 31 0 0 49 60 NW 3 3 2 1 SW41 294 W 6 1379 P 10/06-06 43 12 2 49 59 W 5 5 2 1 SW43 311 W 7 1760 P 10/06-07 43 12 2 50 55 SW 5 5 2 1 SW41 1931 W 8 15634 P 10/06-08 43 12 2 54 45 S 6 6 2 1 SW39 3552 S 8 29508 P 10/06-09 43 12 2 60 36 SE 6 6 2 1 S37 5172 S 9 43382 F 10/06-10 43 12 2 65 29 SE 7 7 2 1 S33 6715 S13 78394 G 10/06-11 43 12 2 67 25 SE 9 14 3 1 S32 8257 S15 113407 V 10/06-12 57 25 5 69 23 SE10 16 3 3 S31 9799 S17 148420 V 10/06-13 57 25 5 71 22 SE12 18 3 3 S33 10468 S21 197399 E 10/06-14 57 25 5 71 21 S13 20 3 3 S37 11136 S25 246379 E 10/06-15 57 25 5 72 21 S13 21 3 3 S38 11805 S29 295359 E 10/06-16 57 25 5 71 21 S13 20 3 3 S36 10792 S28 259611 E 10/06-17 57 25 5 69 22 S12 18 3 3 S32 9778 S26 223864 E 10/06-18 57 25 5 67 24 S10 16 3 1 S31 8765 S24 188116 E 10/06-19 57 25 5 62 28 S 9 15 3 1 S36 7003 S21 137178 V 10/06-20 57 25 5 58 32 SW 8 13 3 1 S41 5240 SW16 86240 G 10/06-21 57 25 5 56 34 SW 7 7 3 1 SW47 3477 W12 35303 P 10/06-22 57 25 5 53 36 SW 6 6 3 1 S49 4005 SW12 42412 F 10/06-23 57 25 5 52 37 W 5 5 2 1 S51 4534 SW13 49522 F 10/07-00 45 23 5 50 40 W 5 5 2 1 S49 5062 S13 56631 F 10/07-01 45 23 5 48 41 W 5 5 2 1 S44 4690 SW14 57433 F 10/07-02 45 23 5 47 43 W 6 6 2 1 SW36 4317 SW16 58236 F 10/07-03 45 23 5 46 45 W 7 7 3 1 SW31 3945 W17 59038 F 10/07-04 45 23 5 45 46 W 8 8 4 1 SW30 3677 W23 72018 G 10/07-05 45 23 5 44 46 W 8 14 4 1 SW32 3409 W30 84997 G 10/07-06 33 8 2 44 46 W 9 15 5 1 SW36 3141 W36 97977 G KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...JEFF CRANDALL REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111004.HORSE.01/BOU