FNUS75 KBOU 032134 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR LOWER NORTH FORK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 334 PM MDT MON OCT 3 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS EAST. AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TEMPERATURES WILL COOL. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EACH DAY RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THESE WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK. GREATEST CONCERN WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS. LIGHT TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-52. MAX HUMIDITY........50-60%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71. MIN HUMIDITY........25-30%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 3-8 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH NEAR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 8600-9600 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. EXCELLENT AFTER 1400. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TUESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50. MAX HUMIDITY........55-65%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...NEAR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7800 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-68. MIN HUMIDITY........30-35%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 3-8 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH NEAR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 8200-9200 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800. VERY GOOD AFTER 1100. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR LOWER NORTH FORK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/03-15 52 18 4 73 28 SE 9 15 2 3 S20 11075 SE14 130911 V 10/03-16 63 18 4 72 28 SE 9 15 2 3 S16 9861 SE14 117542 V 10/03-17 63 18 4 71 29 SE 9 15 2 3 S12 8648 SE14 104172 V 10/03-18 63 18 4 69 30 SE 9 15 2 3 S 9 7434 S14 90803 G 10/03-19 63 18 4 66 33 S 9 15 2 3 S 8 5098 S14 62156 G 10/03-20 63 18 4 62 36 S10 16 2 3 SE 9 2763 S14 33510 P 10/03-21 63 18 4 61 38 SW10 16 2 3 SE12 427 SW13 4863 P 10/03-22 63 18 4 59 40 SW10 17 2 3 S16 415 SW14 4936 P 10/03-23 63 18 4 58 41 SW12 18 2 3 S21 403 SW14 5010 P 10/04-00 37 0 0 56 43 W12 18 2 1 S24 390 SW15 5083 P 10/04-01 37 0 0 55 45 W12 18 2 1 S25 335 SW14 4212 P 10/04-02 37 0 0 54 47 W12 18 2 1 S25 280 SW14 3341 P 10/04-03 37 0 0 53 48 W12 18 2 1 SW23 225 SW13 2470 P 10/04-04 37 0 0 53 49 W10 17 2 1 SW22 217 SW12 2237 P 10/04-05 37 0 0 52 49 W10 16 2 1 SW20 209 W12 2004 P 10/04-06 31 0 0 52 50 W 9 15 2 1 SW17 201 W10 1772 P 10/04-07 31 0 0 53 49 SW 8 14 2 1 SW18 711 SW10 6761 P 10/04-08 31 0 0 56 46 SW 8 8 2 1 SW20 1221 SW10 11750 P 10/04-09 31 0 0 61 40 SW 7 7 2 1 SW20 1731 SW12 16739 P 10/04-10 31 0 0 65 36 SW 6 6 2 1 SW20 3934 SW13 48251 F 10/04-11 31 0 0 67 34 SW 6 6 2 1 SW18 6137 SW14 79762 G 10/04-12 51 20 4 69 32 SW 6 6 2 3 S18 8340 SW15 111274 V 10/04-13 51 20 4 70 31 SW 8 8 2 3 S20 8728 SW17 131716 V 10/04-14 51 20 4 70 30 S10 16 2 3 S22 9115 SW20 152158 E 10/04-15 51 20 4 71 29 S13 21 2 3 S24 9503 S21 172600 E 10/04-16 51 20 4 70 30 S15 23 2 3 SW22 8907 SW22 166485 E 10/04-17 51 20 4 69 30 S16 25 2 3 SW18 8312 SW22 160370 E 10/04-18 65 20 4 67 31 SW16 25 2 3 SW16 7716 SW23 154255 E 10/04-19 65 20 4 63 36 SW15 24 2 3 SW17 5737 SW23 114246 V 10/04-20 65 20 4 60 40 SW13 21 2 3 SW18 3759 SW22 74238 G 10/04-21 65 20 4 58 43 SW10 16 2 3 SW22 1781 SW22 34230 P 10/04-22 65 20 4 56 46 SW10 10 2 3 SW22 1419 SW21 26373 P 10/04-23 65 20 4 55 48 SW10 10 2 3 S22 1057 SW20 18518 P 10/05-00 55 0 0 54 52 SW12 18 2 1 S21 696 SW17 10662 P 10/05-01 55 0 0 52 54 SW12 18 2 1 S21 621 SW16 8781 P 10/05-02 55 0 0 51 57 SW12 12 2 1 SW21 545 SW14 6899 P 10/05-03 55 0 0 50 58 SW12 18 2 1 SW20 470 SW13 5017 P 10/05-04 55 0 0 50 60 SW12 20 2 1 SW17 434 SW13 4820 P 10/05-05 55 0 0 49 61 SW13 20 2 1 SW15 398 SW14 4622 P 10/05-06 55 0 0 49 62 SW13 21 2 1 SW14 362 SW14 4424 P 10/05-07 55 0 0 50 59 W13 20 2 1 SW15 1700 W14 18027 P 10/05-08 55 0 0 53 53 W13 20 2 1 S17 3038 W13 31630 P 10/05-09 55 0 0 57 46 W12 18 2 1 S18 4375 W12 45234 F 10/05-10 55 0 0 61 40 W10 10 2 1 S17 5786 W12 58475 F 10/05-11 55 0 0 63 37 W10 10 2 1 S16 7196 W12 71716 G 10/05-12 53 20 4 64 35 W 9 9 2 3 S14 8607 SW12 84957 G 10/05-13 53 20 4 65 34 SW 9 9 2 3 S13 8919 SW12 87880 G 10/05-14 53 20 4 66 34 SW 8 8 2 3 SW13 9231 SW12 90803 G 10/05-15 53 20 4 66 34 S 9 9 2 3 SW10 9544 SW12 93726 G 10/05-16 53 20 4 65 35 S12 12 2 3 SW 8 8613 SW14 101964 V 10/05-17 53 20 4 64 36 S14 22 2 3 SW 6 7683 SW17 110202 V 10/05-18 53 20 4 63 38 SW15 24 2 3 W 5 6753 SW21 118441 V 10/05-19 53 20 4 59 43 SW15 23 2 3 SW 5 5204 SW21 91892 G 10/05-20 53 20 4 56 48 SW14 22 2 3 S 6 3655 SW21 65344 G 10/05-21 53 20 4 55 50 SW13 21 2 3 S 9 2105 SW21 38796 P 10/05-22 53 20 4 53 52 SW13 21 2 3 S14 1841 SW21 33260 P 10/05-23 53 20 4 52 53 SW14 21 2 3 SW21 1577 SW20 27724 P 10/06-00 29 0 0 51 56 SW14 22 2 1 SW28 1312 SW20 22188 P 10/06-01 29 0 0 50 57 SW14 23 2 1 SW32 1116 SW20 19290 P 10/06-02 29 0 0 49 59 W15 24 2 1 SW36 920 SW21 16393 P 10/06-03 29 0 0 48 60 W15 24 2 1 SW38 724 SW22 13496 P 10/06-04 29 0 0 48 60 W15 23 2 1 SW36 731 W21 13235 P 10/06-05 29 0 0 47 60 W14 22 2 1 SW33 738 W21 12975 P 10/06-06 29 0 0 47 60 W13 21 2 1 SW31 745 W20 12715 P 10/06-07 29 0 0 48 57 W12 12 2 1 SW33 1638 SW18 23484 P 10/06-08 29 0 0 51 49 SW 9 9 2 1 SW37 2530 SW16 34254 P 10/06-09 29 0 0 56 40 SW 9 9 2 1 SW43 3422 SW15 45024 F 10/06-10 29 0 0 60 34 SW12 12 2 1 SW52 4753 SW22 103932 V 10/06-11 29 0 0 62 31 SW14 22 2 1 SW62 6085 SW28 162840 E 10/06-12 34 10 2 64 29 S17 28 2 2 SW69 7417 SW35 221747 E 10/06-13 34 10 2 65 28 S21 33 2 2 SW69 7885 SW37 250770 E 10/06-14 34 10 2 66 27 S23 38 2 2 SW67 8353 S38 279792 E 10/06-15 34 10 2 66 26 S25 40 2 2 SW61 8821 S40 308815 E 10/06-16 34 10 2 66 26 S25 41 2 2 SW56 7853 S40 274925 E 10/06-17 34 10 2 64 27 S24 39 2 2 SW52 6885 S40 241036 E 10/06-18 34 10 2 63 29 S23 37 2 2 SW45 5917 S40 207146 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...VAUGHN JONES REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111004.LOWER.01/BOU