FNUS75 KBOU 042044 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR LOWER NORTH FORK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 230 PM MDT TUE OCT 4 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS EAST. AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TEMPERATURES WILL COOL. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EACH DAY RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK. GREATEST CONCERN WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-77. MIN HUMIDITY........21-23%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 6-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6800-7800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 0300...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100. MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-51. MAX HUMIDITY........53-57%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17-28 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 12-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4200-5200 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 0100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-74. MIN HUMIDITY........21-24%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH AFTER 1200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 7600-8600 FT AGL AFTER 0900. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1300...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. COOLER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. COLDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR LOWER NORTH FORK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/04-14 63 29 8 73 31 S15 22 2 4 SW21 8284 SW18 134735 V 10/04-15 69 29 8 72 32 S17 26 2 4 SW21 8470 S21 152581 E 10/04-16 69 29 8 70 33 S18 28 2 4 SW22 7384 S23 144589 V 10/04-17 69 29 8 69 34 SW18 28 2 4 SW24 6297 SW25 136597 V 10/04-18 73 20 4 66 39 SW17 26 2 3 S25 5210 SW29 128606 V 10/04-19 73 20 4 62 44 SW15 22 2 3 SW26 3960 SW24 91826 G 10/04-20 73 20 4 60 47 SW12 16 2 3 SW25 2711 SW20 55046 F 10/04-21 73 20 4 58 52 SW 8 8 2 3 SW23 1461 SW15 18265 P 10/04-22 73 20 4 57 54 SW 7 7 2 3 SW18 1282 SW15 16898 P 10/04-23 73 20 4 56 58 SW 7 7 2 3 SW14 1103 SW16 15530 P 10/05-00 52 5 1 54 62 SW 7 7 2 1 SW10 924 SW17 14162 P 10/05-01 52 5 1 54 63 SW 7 7 2 1 SW10 782 SW16 11119 P 10/05-02 52 5 1 53 64 SW 7 7 2 1 SW12 641 SW14 8076 P 10/05-03 48 5 1 52 66 SW 7 7 2 1 SW14 500 W12 5033 P 10/05-04 48 5 1 50 65 W 8 8 2 1 SW13 469 W13 5008 P 10/05-05 48 5 1 50 61 W 8 8 2 1 SW12 438 W13 4982 P 10/05-06 39 5 0 50 58 W 9 14 2 1 S12 408 W14 4963 P 10/05-07 39 5 0 50 57 W10 15 2 1 S14 1773 W13 14542 P 10/05-08 39 5 0 53 48 W10 16 2 1 S16 3139 W10 24120 P 10/05-09 39 5 0 57 42 W12 17 2 1 S17 4505 W 8 33698 P 10/05-10 39 5 0 61 37 SW10 16 2 1 S17 5532 W 8 41411 F 10/05-11 39 5 0 63 35 S 8 14 2 1 SW17 6558 SW 8 49123 F 10/05-12 53 16 2 64 33 S 8 13 2 2 W15 7585 SW 8 56835 F 10/05-13 53 16 2 65 32 S10 16 2 2 SW14 8094 SW12 87587 G 10/05-14 53 16 2 66 32 SW14 22 2 2 SW12 8602 SW15 118338 V 10/05-15 53 16 2 66 31 SW16 25 2 2 SW 9 9111 SW18 149089 V 10/05-16 53 16 2 65 32 SW17 26 2 2 SW 8 8191 SW18 131242 V 10/05-17 53 16 2 64 33 SW17 26 2 2 S 8 7270 SW17 113395 V 10/05-18 53 10 2 63 34 E 5 5 2 2 SW12 7924 S10 72660 G 10/05-19 53 10 2 59 39 E 5 5 2 2 SW13 6899 S 9 56237 F 10/05-20 53 10 2 56 44 N 5 5 2 2 SW14 5875 S 7 39813 P 10/05-21 53 10 2 55 46 N 5 5 2 2 SW16 4851 SW 6 23389 P 10/05-22 53 10 2 53 49 NW 5 5 2 2 SW21 4123 SW 7 21879 P 10/05-23 53 10 2 52 50 W 5 5 2 2 S24 3395 SW 7 20368 P 10/06-00 28 0 0 51 53 SW 5 5 2 1 S28 2668 SW 8 18857 P 10/06-01 28 0 0 50 54 SW 6 6 2 1 S29 2182 SW 8 15715 P 10/06-02 28 0 0 49 55 SW 8 8 2 1 SW29 1696 SW 9 12572 P 10/06-03 28 0 0 48 55 W10 10 2 1 SW30 1210 SW 9 9430 P 10/06-04 28 0 0 48 55 W12 12 2 1 SW33 1161 SW 9 9420 P 10/06-05 28 0 0 47 54 W12 18 2 1 SW38 1113 SW 9 9410 P 10/06-06 28 0 0 47 54 W12 18 2 1 SW43 1064 SW10 9400 P 10/06-07 28 0 0 48 52 SW10 10 2 1 SW46 2548 SW15 44314 F 10/06-08 28 0 0 51 46 SW 9 9 2 1 SW49 4033 SW20 79229 G 10/06-09 28 0 0 56 39 SW10 10 2 1 SW53 5517 SW24 114143 V 10/06-10 28 0 0 60 34 SW15 23 2 1 SW54 6778 SW30 186218 E 10/06-11 28 0 0 62 32 SW20 32 2 1 SW54 8040 SW36 258294 E 10/06-12 65 10 2 64 30 SW24 39 2 2 SW55 9302 SW41 330369 E 10/06-13 65 10 2 65 30 S25 40 2 2 SW58 9690 SW43 356663 E 10/06-14 65 10 2 66 29 S24 39 2 2 SW61 10079 S44 382957 E 10/06-15 65 10 2 66 29 S23 37 2 2 SW60 10467 S45 409252 E 10/06-16 65 10 2 66 30 S23 36 2 2 SW52 9431 S45 366446 E 10/06-17 65 10 2 64 32 S22 36 2 2 S41 8395 S44 323641 E 10/06-18 47 10 2 63 33 S22 35 2 2 S36 7358 S44 280836 E 10/06-19 47 10 2 58 38 S22 35 2 2 S41 6471 S43 243503 E 10/06-20 47 10 2 55 42 SW22 35 2 2 S51 5584 S43 206170 E 10/06-21 47 10 2 53 43 SW21 33 2 2 S60 4697 S41 168837 E 10/06-22 47 10 2 51 45 SW18 30 2 2 S61 4478 SW40 155673 E 10/06-23 47 10 2 50 45 SW16 25 2 2 S60 4259 SW38 142509 V 10/07-00 32 0 0 49 46 SW14 22 2 1 S60 4040 SW37 129345 V 10/07-01 32 0 0 47 46 SW14 22 2 1 S63 4042 SW40 140279 V 10/07-02 32 0 0 46 46 SW14 22 2 1 S68 4043 SW43 151214 E 10/07-03 32 0 0 45 46 SW14 22 2 1 S71 4045 SW46 162148 E 10/07-04 32 0 0 45 45 SW13 21 2 1 S71 4415 SW44 166215 E 10/07-05 32 0 0 44 44 SW13 20 3 1 S68 4785 SW41 170282 E 10/07-06 23 0 0 44 44 W13 21 3 1 SW63 5155 SW39 174349 E 10/07-07 23 0 0 45 41 W15 23 3 1 SW58 6048 SW36 182146 E 10/07-08 23 0 0 47 38 W16 26 2 1 SW51 6942 SW32 189944 E 10/07-09 23 0 0 50 34 W18 30 2 1 SW44 7835 SW29 197742 E 10/07-10 23 0 0 53 30 W18 30 2 1 SW39 8393 SW29 206671 E 10/07-11 23 0 0 55 29 SW18 29 2 1 SW35 8951 SW28 215599 E 10/07-12 59 10 2 56 28 SW17 28 2 2 SW32 9509 SW28 224528 E 10/07-13 59 10 2 57 27 SW17 28 2 2 SW32 9571 SW26 220713 E 10/07-14 59 10 2 57 27 SW17 26 2 2 SW32 9633 SW26 216898 E 10/07-15 59 10 2 57 27 SW16 25 2 2 SW31 9695 SW25 213083 E 10/07-16 59 10 2 57 27 SW15 24 2 2 SW29 9711 SW23 190777 E 10/07-17 59 10 2 56 28 W13 21 2 2 SW26 9728 SW20 168472 E 10/07-18 61 10 2 55 29 W12 18 2 1 SW22 9744 SW17 146166 V KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...VAUGHN JONES REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111004.LOWER.02/BOU