FNUS75 KCYS 041346
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR FERRIS MOUNTAIN...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
746 AM MDT TUE OCT 4 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0707 MDT ON OCTOBER 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. STRONG
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
FIRE SITE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST AS
HIGH AS 35 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING OVER THE
AREA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THAT
SAME WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL AGAIN PRODUCE A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND THEN WILL
BE COOLER THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MIN HUMIDITY........31 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 17 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
                    INCREASING TO 18 TO 22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNON.                   AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 26 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING EXCELLENT BY MIDDAY (222400 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EARLY EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.
MAX HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS DECREASING TO 8 TO 14 MPH IN THE
                    EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.                   MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING POOR AFTER MIDNIGHT (6900-KNOT-FT).

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) WITH SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.
MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 17 TO 23 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 35 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 5900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNO0N.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 27 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING EXCELLENT BY MIDDAY (157800 KNOT-FT).

.OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THIS
TIME AND WILL BE EAST OF THE FIRE SITE ON SUNDAY. THE STORM WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH SATURDAY AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT. SLIGHTLY
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ON FRIDAY.

$$

FORECASTER...WEILAND
REQUESTED BY...ZACH HARTSHORN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20111004.FERRI.01/CYS