FNUS75 KCYS 042339
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR FERRIS MT...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
539 PM MDT TUE OCT 4 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1715 MDT ON OCTOBER 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A SLOW MOVING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A
STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AT THE WILDFIRE SITE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 35 MPH THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEK...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

.REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 35 MPH.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (189200 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46.
MAX HUMIDITY........71 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35
                    MPH DECREASING TO 30 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING
                    AND OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................20 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO EXCELLENT (7400-67000 KNOT-FT).

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.
MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35
                    MPH INCREASING TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5900 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 30 TO 35 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (65000-171100 KNOT-FT).

.OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WYOMING DURING THIS
TIME AND WILL BE EAST OF THE FIRE SITE ON SUNDAY. THE STORM WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT. SLIGHTLY
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTY AT TIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER...JAMSKI
REQUESTED BY...ZACH HARTSHORN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20111004.FERRI.02/CYS