FNUS74 KEPZ 031944
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR CORA DUTTON UNIT...NMLNF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
144 PM MDT MON OCT 3 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 MDT ON OCTOBER 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NM TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF A FEW OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.

THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL STORM MOVES BY LATER WEDNESDAY BUT A SECOND
LARGER UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL APPROACH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY WE SHOULD HAVE
A DRY WEEKEND.


.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING...THEN
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. A COUPLE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
                    LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH 6 TO 11 MPH. GUSTS TO 30 MPH NEAR STRONGER
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5800 FT AGL LATE IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 10000 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 7500 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 11 KNOTS.
VENTILATION CAT.....POOR EARLY IMPROVING TO GOOD AFTER 11AM AND TO
                    VERY GOOD AFTER 3PM

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE STORMS
                    MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY
                    WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST 6 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS TO 30 MPH NEAR STRONGER
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-600 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 7 KNOTS.
VENTILATION CAT.....FAIR IN THE EVENING BECOMING POOR OVERNIGHT

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-31 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH 11 TO 16 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8900-9800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 19 KNOTS.
VENTILATION CAT.....POOR EARLY IMPROVING TO GOOD AFTER 11AM AND TO
                    EXCELLENT AFTER 2PM AFTER 3PM

$$
FORECASTER...MACBLAIN
REQUESTED BY...NM ADC
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111004.CORAD.01/EPZ