FNUS74 KEWX 050314
FWSEWX

SPOT FORECAST FOR BASTROP COMPLEX  FIRE...TEXAS FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1014 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2145 CDT ON OCTOBER 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...PLEASE NOTE NEW TITLE IN HEADER TO REPLACE THE NAME OF OLD POTATO
ROAD FIRE TO BASTROP COMPLEX FIRE...

.DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD POTENTIALLY RETURN QUICKLY
TO THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT AFTER DAYBREAK...AS OBSTRUCTION TO MIXING
BY A CONTINUOUS MORNING LOW CLOUD LAYER IS NOT EXPECTED. THUS WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL MIX DOWN TO THE 20-FOOT LAYER TO BE AS HIGH
AS 8 TO 10 MPH BY AROUND 10 AM. THE STRONGEST 20-FOOT WINDS OF 10
TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER
3 PM...AS DAYTIME MIXING CONTINUES TO INCREASE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT 10 PERCENT
HIGHER THAN THOSE SEEN DURING THE SAME TIME PERIODS ON TUESDAY.
THUS RH MINIMUMS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 30S INSTEAD OF THE LOWER
20S.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85.
MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 7 TO 10 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 15 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........18     56     56     56     50     50
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............56     57     66     75     81     85
RH..............100    100    80     53     40     33
20 FT WIND......SE 3   E 6    E 7    SE 8   SE 8   SE 9
20 FT WIND GUST.3      8      15     16     16     17
EYE LEVEL WIND..SE 1   SE 4   SE 5   SE 5   SE 6   SE 6
EYE LEVEL WIND..1      7      9      10     12     13
HAINES INDEX....5      5      5      4      3      3

$$
FORECASTER...18
REQUESTED BY...MARK VON TILLOW
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20111004.OLDPO.01/EWX