FNUS75 KGJT 040453
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR ALDRICH LAKES RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1053 PM MDT MON OCT 3 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MDT ON OCTOBER 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL SEND A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THE
MOST LIKELY TIME TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. COOLER WEATHER WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE AREA.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (70-80%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY WINDS 2-5 MPH UNTIL 1100
                    ...THEN BECOMING SOUTH AND INCREASING TO
                    5-10 MPH BY 1300. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (LESS THAN 15000 KNOT-FT) UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    INCREASING TO VERY GOOD BY 1300.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7700 FT AGL BY 1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........79-84%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 6-12 MPH UNTIL 1900...THEN
                    BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-5 MPH. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900...THEN DECREASING TO POOR
                    (LESS THAN 15000 KNOT-FT) BY 2100.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL BY 2100.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 19 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (60-70%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-5 MPH UNTIL 0800...THEN
                    SOUTH WINDS 5-10 MPH UNTIL 1200. WINDS BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST AFTER 1200 AND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (LESS THAN 20000 KNOT-FT) UNTIL 0800...
                    THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT BY 1200.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 9100 FT AGL BY 1200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 23 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JEFF COLTON
REQUESTED BY...JIM GENUNG
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111004.ALDRI.01/GJT