FNUS75 KRIW 051046
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR ASPEN CREEK FIRE...IA TDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
446 AM MDT WED OCT 5 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1933 MDT ON OCTOBER 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

THE FIRST MAJOR FALL STORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN WYOMING OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COLDER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE AREA TODAY...BUT SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 10000 FEET TODAY. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 9000 FEET...AND THEN COULD
FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS THURSDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400-4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHWEST
                    20 TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 13 MPH AND GUSTY EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7
                    MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 20-25 MPH...DECREASING TO 10-15 MPH BY
                    MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.30 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 25 MPH DECREASING TO 15 MPH
                    BY MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
                    THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-66 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.50 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900-3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (38000-46700 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...ASPEN CREEK FEMO
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20111004.ASPEN.01/RIW