FNUS75 KRIW 041125
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR PHELPS MORAINE...GRAND TETON NATIONAL PARK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
525 AM MDT TUE OCT 4 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON OCTOBER 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS DAY ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW MORNING SHOWERS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...SKRBAC

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-65.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-42 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-7 MPH BECOMING SOUTH TO
                    SOUTHEAST 10 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................2 AFTER .
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.30 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6500 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 TO 24 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR BECOMING VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    (57900-130000 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-39.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-89 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 6-12 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.25 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100-4100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1400 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 16 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD EARLY...THEN BECOMING POOR OVERNIGHT.
                    (19400-65400 KNOT-FT).

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    IN THE MORNING...THEN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MIN HUMIDITY........43-46 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH...INCREASING TO 15 TO
                    25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.40 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 22 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (56600-81300 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...SKRBAC
REQUESTED BY...PHELPS MORAINE BURN BOSS
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111004.PHELP.01/RIW