FNUS75 KBOU 032136 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR HALL RANCH RX FIRE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 318 PM MDT MON OCT 3 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS EAST. AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TEMPERATURES WILL COOL. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EACH DAY RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THESE WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK. GREATEST CONCERN WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-52. MAX HUMIDITY........50-60%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 3-7 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN NORTH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST 7-13 MPH. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH UNTIL 0600. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5-16 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......9400 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82. MIN HUMIDITY........18-23%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 2-6 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHERLY 4-8 MPH. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AFTER 1200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-8 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTH 8-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 3600 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 6200 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 9600-10600 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 7800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. GOOD AFTER 1400. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TUESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52. MAX HUMIDITY........55-65%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5-15 MPH. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH UNTIL 0600. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2000. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74. MIN HUMIDITY........25-30%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHERLY WINDS 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 8 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 4 MPH. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AFTER 1200. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 6800-7800 FT AGL AFTER 1000. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. COOLER. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR HALL RANCH RX FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/03-15 45 8 2 79 22 SE 9 14 3 1 S21 12138 S14 147434 V 10/03-16 50 10 2 78 22 SE 9 9 3 2 S21 11247 S14 137766 V 10/03-17 50 10 2 77 23 SE 8 8 3 2 S21 10356 S14 128097 V 10/03-18 50 10 2 75 24 SE 7 7 3 2 S21 9464 S15 118429 V 10/03-19 50 10 2 71 28 SE 6 6 3 2 S21 6388 SE10 79224 G 10/03-20 50 10 2 67 32 E 3 3 3 2 SE22 3311 E 7 40019 F 10/03-21 50 10 2 65 35 NE 3 3 3 2 SE22 234 E 3 814 P 10/03-22 50 10 2 62 38 NE 5 5 3 2 SE23 224 NE 6 999 P 10/03-23 50 10 2 61 40 NW 7 7 3 2 S24 214 NW 7 1184 P 10/04-00 27 0 0 59 43 NW 9 14 3 1 S25 204 W 8 1369 P 10/04-01 27 0 0 58 46 W 9 14 3 1 S25 192 W 7 1242 P 10/04-02 27 0 0 56 48 W 9 9 3 1 S26 180 W 7 1114 P 10/04-03 27 0 0 55 49 W 8 8 3 1 S25 168 W 7 987 P 10/04-04 27 0 0 55 50 W 7 7 3 1 S22 167 W 7 935 P 10/04-05 27 0 0 54 50 W 7 7 3 1 SW17 165 W 6 883 P 10/04-06 30 0 0 54 51 W 6 6 3 1 SW13 164 W 6 831 P 10/04-07 30 0 0 55 48 W 5 5 3 1 SW12 451 W 7 3400 P 10/04-08 30 0 0 59 42 W 5 5 3 1 SW10 738 W 8 5969 P 10/04-09 30 0 0 65 34 W 3 3 3 1 SW10 1025 W 9 8538 P 10/04-10 30 0 0 70 28 W 2 2 3 1 SW12 3602 W 9 26720 P 10/04-11 30 0 0 73 26 SW 2 2 3 1 SW13 6180 SW 9 44902 F 10/04-12 54 10 2 75 24 SW 2 2 3 2 SW14 8757 SW 8 63085 G 10/04-13 54 10 2 76 23 SW 3 3 3 2 SW14 9539 SW 9 77832 G 10/04-14 54 10 2 77 23 SW 6 6 3 2 S14 10320 S10 92579 G 10/04-15 54 10 2 78 23 SW 7 7 3 2 S14 11101 S12 107327 V 10/04-16 54 10 2 77 24 S 7 7 3 2 S14 9451 S12 93450 G 10/04-17 54 10 2 75 25 S 7 7 3 2 S15 7800 S12 79573 G 10/04-18 62 10 2 74 27 S 7 7 3 2 S16 6149 S13 65696 G 10/04-19 62 10 2 69 32 SW 9 9 3 2 S15 4245 S14 46009 F 10/04-20 62 10 2 65 37 SW12 17 3 2 S14 2342 SW16 26322 P 10/04-21 62 10 2 63 39 W15 23 3 2 S13 438 W17 6635 P 10/04-22 62 10 2 61 42 W16 25 3 2 S15 399 W17 6055 P 10/04-23 62 10 2 60 44 W16 25 3 2 S17 360 W17 5476 P 10/05-00 55 0 0 58 48 W15 24 3 1 S18 321 W17 4896 P 10/05-01 55 0 0 56 50 W13 21 3 1 S20 289 W15 3843 P 10/05-02 55 0 0 55 51 W12 12 2 1 S20 256 W12 2790 P 10/05-03 55 0 0 54 53 W 9 9 2 1 S17 224 W 9 1737 P 10/05-04 55 0 0 54 54 W 9 9 2 1 S15 236 W 8 1677 P 10/05-05 55 0 0 53 55 W 9 9 2 1 S10 248 W 8 1617 P 10/05-06 46 0 0 53 55 NW 9 9 2 1 S 8 260 NW 7 1558 P 10/05-07 46 0 0 54 52 W 9 9 2 1 S 8 1182 W 7 6914 P 10/05-08 46 0 0 56 49 W 8 8 2 1 S10 2104 W 7 12271 P 10/05-09 46 0 0 61 42 W 8 8 2 1 S12 3026 W 7 17628 P 10/05-10 46 0 0 65 36 W 7 7 2 1 S13 4375 W 7 24400 P 10/05-11 46 0 0 67 34 W 7 7 2 1 S14 5725 W 7 31172 P 10/05-12 54 0 0 69 32 W 6 6 2 1 S14 7075 W 6 37945 P 10/05-13 54 0 0 70 31 SW 5 5 2 1 S14 7598 W 5 32319 P 10/05-14 54 0 0 70 30 S 5 5 3 1 SW13 8122 SW 3 26693 P 10/05-15 54 0 0 71 30 SE 3 3 3 1 SW13 8646 S 2 21067 P 10/05-16 54 0 0 70 30 SE 2 2 3 1 SW13 7500 S 3 23719 P 10/05-17 54 0 0 69 31 E 2 2 3 1 S12 6355 SE 6 26371 P 10/05-18 54 0 0 67 32 E 3 3 3 1 S13 5210 SE 7 29023 P 10/05-19 54 0 0 64 37 NE 6 6 3 1 S13 3586 S 8 20513 P 10/05-20 54 0 0 60 41 NW 9 9 3 1 S13 1962 W10 12003 P 10/05-21 54 0 0 59 43 W12 18 3 1 SE14 337 W12 3493 P 10/05-22 54 0 0 57 45 W13 20 3 1 S16 308 W12 3171 P 10/05-23 54 0 0 56 47 W13 20 2 1 S20 279 W12 2849 P 10/06-00 29 0 0 55 49 W12 18 2 1 S23 250 W12 2527 P 10/06-01 29 0 0 53 50 W10 10 2 1 S26 256 W10 2240 P 10/06-02 29 0 0 52 51 W10 10 2 1 SW30 263 W 8 1954 P 10/06-03 29 0 0 52 52 W 9 9 2 1 SW32 270 W 7 1667 P 10/06-04 29 0 0 51 52 W 9 9 2 1 SW33 272 W 7 1686 P 10/06-05 29 0 0 51 52 W 9 9 2 1 SW35 273 W 7 1705 P 10/06-06 29 0 0 50 53 W 9 9 2 1 SW36 274 W 7 1725 P 10/06-07 29 0 0 52 50 W 7 7 2 1 S37 1657 W 7 8928 P 10/06-08 29 0 0 55 44 NW 3 3 2 1 S38 3039 SW 7 16131 P 10/06-09 29 0 0 60 37 NW 2 2 2 1 S39 4422 S 6 23334 P 10/06-10 29 0 0 65 32 N 3 3 2 1 S40 5322 S 8 39905 P 10/06-11 29 0 0 67 30 E 7 7 2 1 SW40 6223 S10 56475 F 10/06-12 38 0 0 69 28 E 9 9 2 1 SW40 7124 S12 73046 G 10/06-13 38 0 0 70 27 SE10 10 2 1 SW39 7793 S16 110695 V 10/06-14 38 0 0 71 26 SE12 18 3 1 S38 8461 S20 148343 V 10/06-15 38 0 0 71 25 S13 21 3 1 S37 9130 S23 185992 E 10/06-16 38 0 0 70 25 S14 22 3 1 S37 7743 S26 171061 E 10/06-17 38 0 0 69 26 S15 23 3 1 S38 6355 S30 156130 E 10/06-18 38 0 0 67 28 S15 24 3 1 S39 4968 S32 141199 V KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY... REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20111005.HALLR.01/BOU