FNUS75 KBOU 051025 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR HALL RANCH PA7...COUNTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 410 AM MDT WED OCT 5 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN SINCE YESTERDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN MONTANA. A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY...TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS WILL PREVAIL. SMOKE DISPERSION WILL ALSO BE GOOD BY THE NOON HOUR WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HEATING...AND MIXING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE ROCKIES. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS APPROACHING THE BURN SITE COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. WINDIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND EVEN SOME SNOW IS STILL FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....74. MIN HUMIDITY........24%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 6-7 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN SOUTHEAST 6-11 MPH. GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE WITH ANY APPROACHING SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 1400. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...THEN 2200-3200 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 6000-7000 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 9400-10400 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 7000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....45. MAX HUMIDITY........67%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....67. MIN HUMIDITY........26%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN SOUTH 11-17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTH 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 7000-8000 FT AGL AFTER 0900. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1200...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1300...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1500...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1700...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200. COOLER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1800. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR HALL RANCH PA7. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/05-04 50 4 1 52 61 W 6 6 2 1 SW16 474 W 9 3524 P 10/05-05 33 4 1 51 64 W 5 5 2 1 SW16 441 W 9 3650 P 10/05-06 33 0 0 50 67 W 5 5 2 1 SW16 409 W10 3776 P 10/05-07 33 0 0 50 68 W 5 5 2 1 SW15 1930 W10 14558 P 10/05-08 33 0 0 55 55 W 6 6 2 1 SW15 3451 W 9 25340 P 10/05-09 33 0 0 64 40 W 6 6 2 1 SW15 4972 SW 8 36122 P 10/05-10 33 0 0 69 34 NW 6 6 2 1 SW16 6277 SW 8 44529 F 10/05-11 44 0 0 69 32 E 7 7 2 1 S18 7582 SW 8 52935 F 10/05-12 55 29 8 71 30 SE 7 7 2 4 S21 8887 SW 8 61342 G 10/05-13 63 29 8 72 27 SE 7 7 2 4 S20 9608 S 9 73904 G 10/05-14 71 29 8 73 25 SE 8 8 3 4 S18 10329 S 9 86466 G 10/05-15 75 29 8 73 24 SE 8 8 3 4 S17 11051 S10 99029 G 10/05-16 75 29 8 74 25 SE 8 8 3 4 S17 9075 S 8 72497 G 10/05-17 75 29 8 72 27 SW 8 8 3 4 S18 7099 S 7 45964 F 10/05-18 75 19 4 65 36 NW 8 8 3 3 S18 5122 S 5 19432 P 10/05-19 65 19 4 59 46 NW 7 7 3 3 S18 3503 SW 5 13268 P 10/05-20 65 19 4 57 49 W 6 6 2 3 S20 1884 W 5 7103 P 10/05-21 46 10 2 55 51 W 5 5 2 2 S21 265 NW 5 939 P 10/05-22 46 10 2 54 53 W 5 5 2 2 S25 269 W 5 1155 P 10/05-23 40 10 2 52 56 W 6 6 2 2 S30 272 W 6 1372 P 10/06-00 40 1 0 51 58 W 7 7 2 1 S33 276 W 7 1588 P 10/06-01 38 1 0 50 60 SW 8 8 2 1 S33 255 W 7 1535 P 10/06-02 38 1 0 50 60 SW 8 8 2 1 S32 234 W 7 1482 P 10/06-03 35 1 0 49 60 SW 8 8 2 1 S30 212 W 8 1429 P 10/06-04 35 1 0 48 63 SW 7 7 2 1 S28 206 W 7 1201 P 10/06-05 35 1 0 47 65 W 5 5 2 1 S26 201 NW 6 974 P 10/06-06 35 10 2 46 67 NW 3 3 2 1 S25 195 NW 5 746 P 10/06-07 35 10 2 45 64 W 3 3 2 1 S25 1647 W 6 9819 P 10/06-08 35 10 2 50 52 S 3 3 2 1 S25 3099 SW 6 18892 P 10/06-09 46 10 2 58 37 SE 3 3 2 1 S26 4551 S 7 27965 P 10/06-10 46 10 2 62 32 SE 5 5 2 1 S30 5422 S 7 32695 P 10/06-11 46 10 2 63 31 SE 6 6 2 1 S33 6293 S 7 37425 P 10/06-12 65 30 9 64 29 SE 8 8 2 2 S37 7163 S 7 42155 F 10/06-13 65 30 9 66 28 S10 16 2 2 S38 7718 S13 91050 G 10/06-14 65 30 9 66 27 S14 20 3 2 S38 8272 S18 139946 V 10/06-15 65 30 9 67 26 S15 23 3 2 S39 8827 S24 188841 E 10/06-16 65 30 9 67 26 S15 23 3 2 S41 7564 S25 164514 E 10/06-17 65 30 9 65 27 S14 21 3 2 S45 6300 S25 140187 V 10/06-18 56 10 2 58 34 S13 20 3 2 S46 5037 S26 115861 V 10/06-19 56 10 2 51 43 S10 16 3 2 S41 3776 SW21 80914 G 10/06-20 56 10 2 49 46 SW 9 14 3 2 SW37 2516 SW16 45967 F 10/06-21 56 10 2 48 47 SW 9 14 3 2 SW36 1255 SW10 11019 P 10/06-22 56 10 2 46 49 SW13 18 3 2 SW45 1042 SW12 9737 P 10/06-23 56 10 2 44 51 W16 24 2 2 SW56 829 W13 8455 P 10/07-00 39 0 0 43 53 W18 28 2 1 SW66 616 W14 7173 P 10/07-01 39 0 0 41 55 W15 23 2 1 SW68 1283 W18 27023 P 10/07-02 39 0 0 42 54 W12 16 2 1 S64 1950 W24 46873 F 10/07-03 39 0 0 41 55 SW 9 14 2 1 S56 2618 W29 66723 G 10/07-04 39 0 0 40 57 W14 21 3 1 SW45 2216 W32 59707 F 10/07-05 39 0 0 38 60 W22 32 3 1 SW32 1814 W35 52691 F 10/07-06 38 0 0 37 62 W28 41 4 1 SW21 1412 W37 45674 F 10/07-07 38 0 0 37 61 W29 44 4 1 SW14 2454 W32 61807 G 10/07-08 38 0 0 41 51 W29 44 4 1 SW12 3497 W29 77940 G 10/07-09 38 0 0 47 39 W28 41 4 1 SW10 4539 W24 94073 G 10/07-10 38 0 0 50 34 W26 40 4 1 SW12 5225 W21 92054 G 10/07-11 38 0 0 51 33 W25 38 4 1 SW15 5912 W18 90035 G 10/07-12 66 10 2 52 31 W24 37 4 1 SW17 6598 SW15 88015 G 10/07-13 66 10 2 53 30 W24 36 3 1 SW17 7148 SW17 105370 V 10/07-14 66 10 2 53 29 W23 35 3 1 SW17 7699 W18 122725 V 10/07-15 66 10 2 54 28 W23 35 2 1 SW17 8249 W20 140080 V 10/07-16 66 10 2 54 28 W23 35 2 1 S18 7187 W18 118190 V 10/07-17 66 10 2 54 29 W23 35 3 1 S20 6126 W17 96300 G 10/07-18 56 10 2 51 32 W22 33 3 1 S21 5064 W17 74410 G 10/07-19 56 10 2 48 36 W20 29 3 1 S21 4490 W15 60654 G 10/07-20 56 10 2 47 38 W16 24 3 1 S21 3917 W14 46898 F 10/07-21 56 10 2 47 39 W13 20 3 1 S21 3343 W12 33141 P 10/07-22 56 10 2 46 41 W10 15 3 1 S18 2950 W13 30981 P 10/07-23 56 10 2 45 43 NW 8 8 3 1 SW16 2557 W14 28820 P 10/08-00 83 40 18 45 45 NW 6 6 3 1 SW14 2163 W14 26659 P 10/08-01 83 40 18 44 46 NW 5 5 3 1 SW12 2153 NW10 19133 P 10/08-02 83 40 18 44 47 NW 3 3 2 1 SW 9 2143 N 6 11606 P 10/08-03 83 40 18 44 48 NW 3 3 2 1 SW 8 2132 N 2 4080 P 10/08-04 83 40 18 43 50 NW 3 3 2 1 SW 8 2394 N 3 7562 P 10/08-05 83 40 18 43 51 NW 3 3 2 1 S 9 2655 NE 5 11044 P 10/08-06 74 36 14 43 53 NW 3 3 2 1 S 9 2917 NE 6 14526 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...CHAD JULIAN REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111005.HALLR.02/BOU