FNUS75 KBOU 051141 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR WOODHOUSE RANCH...OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 534 AM MDT WED OCT 5 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN SINCE YESTERDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN MONTANA. A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY...LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BECOME GUSTY IN SIMILAR FASHION TO YESTERDAY. SMOKE DISPERSION WILL ALSO BE IMPROVING TO VERY GOOD BY THE NOON HOUR WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HEATING...AND MIXING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE ROCKIES. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS APPROACHING THE BURN SITE COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. WINDIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND EVEN SOME SNOW IS STILL FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%) UNTIL 1300...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400. MAX TEMPERATURE.....77. MIN HUMIDITY........22%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 6-12 MPH UNTIL 1400...THEN SOUTH 14-20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...THEN 2800-3800 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 7400-8400 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 11000-12000 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 8400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000... THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100. MIN TEMPERATURE.....48. MAX HUMIDITY........60%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....71. MIN HUMIDITY........23%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. SOUTH WINDS 16-26 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20-28 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 29-40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...THEN 1400-2400 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 5200-6200 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 8400-9400 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 6800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200. COOLER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1800. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR WOODHOUSERANCH. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/05-04 46 3 1 55 60 SW 8 8 2 1 W17 1124 SW20 19315 P 10/05-05 34 3 1 55 62 SW 6 6 2 1 W17 984 SW17 15551 P 10/05-06 34 0 0 54 61 SW 5 5 2 1 SW16 843 SW16 11786 P 10/05-07 34 0 0 55 58 SW 6 6 2 1 SW15 2040 SW15 25457 P 10/05-08 34 0 0 59 51 SW 7 7 2 1 SW14 3238 SW15 39127 P 10/05-09 34 0 0 63 42 SW 8 8 2 1 SW15 4435 W14 52797 F 10/05-10 34 0 0 68 34 SW 8 8 2 1 SW17 6693 SW15 89737 G 10/05-11 42 0 0 73 29 S 8 8 2 1 S20 8951 SW16 126677 V 10/05-12 49 7 1 75 26 S 8 8 2 1 S23 11209 SW17 163618 E 10/05-13 59 7 1 76 24 S10 16 2 1 S23 11676 SW17 181217 E 10/05-14 68 18 4 77 22 S14 21 3 3 SW23 12143 SW18 198816 E 10/05-15 73 18 4 77 22 S16 24 3 3 SW23 12609 SW20 216415 E 10/05-16 73 18 4 77 22 S17 25 3 3 SW23 10537 SW22 190603 E 10/05-17 73 18 4 75 25 S17 25 3 3 SW24 8466 S23 164790 E 10/05-18 73 10 2 70 31 S16 24 3 2 SW24 6394 S25 138978 V 10/05-19 64 10 2 65 37 S14 21 3 2 SW20 4557 S25 98931 G 10/05-20 64 10 2 62 43 S10 16 2 2 SW15 2721 SW24 58884 F 10/05-21 46 6 1 59 47 S 8 8 2 1 SW13 884 SW24 18837 P 10/05-22 46 6 1 58 49 S 8 8 2 1 SW17 838 SW22 16413 P 10/05-23 41 6 1 57 50 S 9 9 3 1 SW24 791 SW20 13990 P 10/06-00 41 0 0 55 51 S10 16 3 1 SW30 745 SW18 11566 P 10/06-01 39 0 0 54 53 S12 16 3 1 SW32 658 SW18 10426 P 10/06-02 39 0 0 51 57 SW12 17 2 1 SW32 571 SW18 9287 P 10/06-03 37 0 0 51 57 SW12 17 2 1 SW33 484 SW20 8148 P 10/06-04 37 0 0 49 59 SW10 16 2 1 SW35 486 SW20 8065 P 10/06-05 37 0 0 49 60 SW10 15 2 1 SW37 489 SW18 7982 P 10/06-06 37 0 0 48 59 SW 9 9 2 1 SW38 491 SW18 7898 P 10/06-07 37 0 0 49 54 SW 9 9 2 1 SW38 1151 SW18 18848 P 10/06-08 37 0 0 53 47 SW10 10 2 1 SW37 1812 SW18 29798 P 10/06-09 41 0 0 57 39 SW12 16 2 1 SW38 2472 SW18 40747 F 10/06-10 41 0 0 63 31 SW15 21 2 1 SW41 4505 SW23 101618 V 10/06-11 41 0 0 67 27 S18 26 2 1 SW46 6538 SW26 162489 E 10/06-12 63 10 2 69 25 S22 31 2 2 SW51 8571 SW30 223360 E 10/06-13 63 10 2 70 24 S23 32 2 2 SW53 8900 SW33 262417 E 10/06-14 63 10 2 71 23 S23 32 2 2 S54 9229 S37 301475 E 10/06-15 63 10 2 71 23 S22 31 2 2 S54 9559 S41 340532 E 10/06-16 63 10 2 71 24 S21 30 2 2 S55 8185 S41 293008 E 10/06-17 63 10 2 69 25 S21 29 2 2 S56 6812 S41 245484 E 10/06-18 56 0 0 64 30 S20 28 2 1 S55 5438 S41 197960 E 10/06-19 56 0 0 59 35 S20 26 2 1 S52 4385 SW36 148323 V 10/06-20 56 0 0 55 40 S18 26 2 1 S47 3332 SW30 98686 G 10/06-21 56 0 0 52 43 SW18 25 2 1 S46 2280 SW25 49048 F 10/06-22 56 0 0 51 45 SW17 25 2 1 S52 3149 SW26 72907 G 10/06-23 56 0 0 50 46 SW17 23 2 1 S60 4018 SW28 96765 G 10/07-00 38 0 0 48 47 SW16 23 2 1 S68 4887 SW29 120624 V 10/07-01 38 0 0 47 48 SW16 22 2 1 S74 4037 SW26 96125 G 10/07-02 38 0 0 44 52 SW16 22 2 1 S78 3187 SW25 71625 G 10/07-03 38 0 0 44 51 SW15 21 2 1 S77 2336 SW23 47126 F 10/07-04 38 0 0 42 52 SW13 18 2 1 SW68 2097 SW25 44725 F 10/07-05 38 0 0 41 53 SW12 12 3 1 SW54 1858 W26 42325 F 10/07-06 38 0 0 41 52 SW10 10 3 1 SW40 1619 W29 39924 P 10/07-07 38 0 0 42 50 SW13 17 3 1 SW31 2667 W26 57486 F 10/07-08 38 0 0 44 45 SW15 21 3 1 SW23 3716 W24 75047 G 10/07-09 38 0 0 48 39 SW17 24 3 1 SW18 4764 W22 92608 G 10/07-10 38 0 0 53 33 SW18 25 3 1 SW18 6764 W22 122641 V 10/07-11 38 0 0 56 30 SW17 25 2 1 SW21 8764 W21 152673 E 10/07-12 56 10 2 58 28 SW17 24 2 1 SW23 10765 SW20 182706 E 10/07-13 56 10 2 59 26 SW17 23 2 1 SW23 10843 SW20 181061 E 10/07-14 56 10 2 59 25 SW16 23 2 1 SW22 10921 SW18 179417 E 10/07-15 56 10 2 59 24 SW15 21 2 1 SW22 10999 SW18 177772 E 10/07-16 56 10 2 59 23 SW14 20 2 1 SW20 10246 SW17 155539 E 10/07-17 56 10 2 58 24 W12 17 2 1 SW18 9493 SW16 133305 V 10/07-18 59 10 2 56 27 W10 10 2 1 S18 8740 SW15 111072 V 10/07-19 59 10 2 53 30 W 9 9 2 1 S18 7437 SW15 96366 G 10/07-20 59 10 2 51 34 W 7 7 2 1 S21 6135 SW15 81660 G 10/07-21 59 10 2 50 37 W 6 6 2 1 S25 4832 SW16 66954 G 10/07-22 59 10 2 49 40 W 5 5 2 1 S37 4122 SW17 59334 F 10/07-23 59 10 2 48 44 W 3 3 3 1 SW48 3412 W17 51714 F 10/08-00 83 40 18 48 47 W 3 3 3 1 SW54 2702 W18 44094 F 10/08-01 83 40 18 47 50 NW 3 3 3 1 SW46 2934 NW14 32087 P 10/08-02 83 40 18 46 53 NW 3 3 2 1 SW32 3165 N 8 20079 P 10/08-03 83 40 18 45 54 NW 3 3 2 1 SW21 3396 N 2 8072 P 10/08-04 83 40 18 45 56 NW 3 3 2 1 SW17 3494 N 3 10808 P 10/08-05 83 40 18 44 57 NW 5 5 2 1 SW18 3591 NE 5 13544 P 10/08-06 72 34 13 44 58 NW 5 5 2 1 SW20 3689 NE 5 16281 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...DAVE REID REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111005.WOODH.01/BOU