FNUS75 KCYS 051120
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR CRISS RANCH...PLATTE COUNTY FD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
520 AM MDT WED OCT 5 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0028 MDT ON OCTOBER 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A POTENT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS TO THE BURN SITE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS
WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...THEN VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME BREEZY AFTER 1400 TODAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
ONLY DROP TO THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
WITH GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES EXPECTED. THURSDAY WILL SEE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SITE AROUND 1500...WITH STRONG WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN ITS WAKE. COULD SEE GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH DURING THIS TIME. CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL BE GOOD
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH WEST WINDS INCREASING TO GUST IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AT TIMES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....BETWEEN 75 AND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........24 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH AT 2 TO 4 BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH
                    BY 1000. WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 1400 AND BE 9 TO 12 MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8500 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (32700-104800 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EARLY EVENING THROUGH 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48 TO 51.
MAX HUMIDITY........71 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 4 TO 7 MPH.
CWR.................30 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT AFTER
                    2000.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (1800-48100 KNOT-FT).

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65 TO 67.
MIN HUMIDITY........36 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST 4 TO 8 MPH BECOMING WEST AROUND
                    17 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH AFTER 1500.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 9200 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 21 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO EXCELLENT (17000-85400 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...MAZUR
REQUESTED BY...PLATTE COUNTY
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20111005.CRISS.01/CYS