FNUS75 KCYS 052344
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR FERRIS MT...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
544 PM MDT WED OCT 5 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1705 MDT ON OCTOBER 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FIRE SITE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. IN ADDITION...STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
INITIAL STORM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE FIRE ON FRIDAY...WITH A
SECONDARY STORM MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FIRE SITE MID MORNING THURSDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A
SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. THOSE STRONG
WINDS FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
WARMER...DRIER AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE FIRE SITE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43.
MAX HUMIDITY........79 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. SOUTH WINDS 16 TO 22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 34
                    MPH. WINDS DECREASING BY LATE EVENING TO 10 TO 14
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 28 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING POOR BY MIDNIGHT (8000 KNOT-FT).

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. WEST WINDS 22 TO 28 MPH BY MID MORNING WITH
                    GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
CWR.................50 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING EXCELLENT BY LATE MORNING (85400 KNOT-FT).

.OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE FIRE SITE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL
WITH A GOOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ARE LIKELY OVER THE FIRE SITE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 60 PERCENT.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY.
THAT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
WINDY CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

$$

FORECASTER...WEILAND
REQUESTED BY...ZACH HARTSHORN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20111005.FERRI.02/CYS