FNUS75 KRIW 042356
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR HOOLIGAN SPRINGS RX...BLM WOD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
556 PM MDT TUE OCT 4 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1500 MDT ON OCTOBER 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING AREAS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LOW SNOW LEVELS
WILL REACH...BUT CURRENTLY IT APPEARS SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO
AROUND 7500 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. ALSO...OCCASIONAL BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FIRE SITE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-71.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 4-8 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH...BETWEEN NOON AND 1400.
                    GUSTS 15-20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS UP TO 40 MPH EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH INCREASING TO
                    15-20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5400 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO GOOD BETWEEN NOON AND 1400.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT)...BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (75 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS UP TO 40 MPH EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH SOUTHWEST 20-30 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND
                    15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2200...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1800 FT AGL
                    BY 2100.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH SOUTHWEST 20-30 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND
                    15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....DECREASING TO POOR BETWEEN 2100 AND 2400.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH SOUTHEAST 10-15 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND
                    10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...COOLER. CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40.
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...SAGE DECKER
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111005.HOOLI.01/RIW