FNUS73 KAPX 061229
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR AIRPORT...STATE OF MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
829 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON OCTOBER 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...INCREASINGLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP THIS MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
LAKE INDUCED COMPONENT ON LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD MAY BACK WINDS SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BURN SITE. NO CHANCE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
COMBINATION OF WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MIXING WILL LEAD TO A
STEADY DECLINE IN RH VALUES THROUGH THE DAY...WITH READINGS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON. EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S AND WINDS SUBSIDE TO LIGHT
SOUTHERLY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........71 AT IGNITION...MAX 77.
RH..................49 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 41 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 8 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.

TIME (EDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........0   2   2   2   13
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............71  74  74  74  73
RH..............49  44  41  41  44
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..5   5   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   4   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 48.
RH..................MAX 96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........13  13  19  19  19  19  19  19  4   4   4   4
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............68  63  62  59  57  55  54  53  53  52  51  51
RH..............49  56  65  75  80  83  86  89  89  93  93  93
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..4   4   3   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   2   2
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

$$
FORECASTER...MIKE BOGUTH
REQUESTED BY...JIM FISHER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111006.AIRPO.01/APX