FNUS73 KAPX 061235 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR FROST POCKET...STATE OF MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 835 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON OCTOBER 06. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...INCREASINGLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP THIS MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. COMBINATION OF WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MIXING WILL LEAD TO A STEADY DECLINE IN RH VALUES THROUGH THE DAY...WITH READINGS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON. EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S AND WINDS SUBSIDE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........71 AT IGNITION...MAX 76. RH..................49 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 41 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (300) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (500). TIME (EDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........0 0 0 0 9 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............71 73 74 73 72 RH..............49 44 41 41 44 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 4 4 SMOKE DISP......300 300 400 500 400 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 49. RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........9 9 14 14 14 14 14 14 10 10 10 10 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............68 62 62 59 57 56 55 54 53 53 52 51 RH..............51 58 67 78 80 83 86 86 89 89 89 93 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...MIKE BOGUTH REQUESTED BY...JIM FISHER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111006.FROST.01/APX