FNUS73 KAPX 061226 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH BRANCH BLOCKS 4 5...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 826 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON OCTOBER 06. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... .DISCUSSION...INCREASINGLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP THIS MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LAKE INDUCED COMPONENT ON LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD MAY BACK WINDS SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BURN SITE. NO CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. COMBINATION OF WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MIXING WILL LEAD TO A STEADY DECLINE IN RH VALUES THROUGH THE DAY...WITH READINGS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON. EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S AND WINDS SUBSIDE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM AND SOUTH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE. INCREASED MECHANICAL MIXING AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN RH VALUES DROPPING QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING...REACHING UPPER 30 TO LOWER 40 VALUES BY AFTERNOON. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........68 AT IGNITION...MAX 76. RH..................57 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 41 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5200 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (200) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (400). TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........0 0 1 1 1 8 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............68 71 73 74 74 72 RH..............57 49 44 41 41 44 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 4 4 SMOKE DISP......200 300 300 400 400 400 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 48. RH..................MAX 96 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........8 8 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............68 63 61 59 57 55 54 53 53 52 51 51 RH..............51 60 70 80 83 86 90 93 93 93 96 93 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 SMOKE DISP......300 200 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 77. RH..................MIN 41 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 15 TO 16 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2400-3800 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(700). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........12 6 6 6 7 7 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............50 50 61 70 75 75 RH..............96 96 75 57 45 41 20 FT WIND......SW 2 SW 3 SW 4 S 6 S 7 S 7 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 15 15 HAINES INDEX....5 4 4 4 5 5 SMOKE DISP......0 0 100 300 600 700 $$ FORECASTER...MIKE BOGUTH REQUESTED BY...BEN EBY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111006.SOUTH.01/APX