FNUS75 KBOU 071110 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR HORSETOOTH MTN PARK...COUNTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 509 AM MDT FRI OCT 7 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY READINGS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT THE AIRMASS HAS DRIED CONSIDERABLY SO RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS WILL DROP INTO THE 10-15% RANGE. BY THIS EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE BURN SITE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1600...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....61. MIN HUMIDITY........12%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 12-20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 9400-10400 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0900...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 2100...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW AFTER 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....34. MAX HUMIDITY........81%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 9-15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW UNTIL 1200...THEN RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....48. MIN HUMIDITY........63%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 11-17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 8-16 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN AROUND 20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 5000-6000 FT AGL AFTER 0900. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN GOOD AFTER 0900. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW UNTIL 0600... THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1800. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0600. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .COLUMBUS DAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR HORSETOOTH MTNPARK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/07-05 15 0 0 37 32 W18 26 4 1 SW54 630 W17 9451 P 10/07-06 15 0 0 35 34 W18 25 4 1 SW51 658 W16 9476 P 10/07-07 15 0 0 35 35 W17 24 4 1 SW47 2214 W18 40002 F 10/07-08 15 0 0 37 31 SW15 21 4 1 SW44 3769 SW20 70528 G 10/07-09 15 0 0 51 19 SW14 20 4 1 SW41 5325 SW22 101054 V 10/07-10 15 0 0 56 15 W14 20 4 1 SW40 6992 SW22 128248 V 10/07-11 15 0 0 57 14 W15 22 3 1 SW39 8658 SW21 155443 E 10/07-12 15 0 0 59 13 W16 23 3 1 SW39 10325 SW21 182638 E 10/07-13 15 0 0 59 13 W16 22 3 1 SW40 10509 SW22 197006 E 10/07-14 18 0 0 61 12 W15 21 2 1 SW41 10694 SW23 211373 E 10/07-15 24 0 0 61 12 W14 20 2 1 SW41 10879 SW24 225741 E 10/07-16 29 0 0 61 12 W14 18 3 1 SW38 9920 SW23 198296 E 10/07-17 35 0 0 60 13 W13 18 3 1 S36 8961 SW22 170851 E 10/07-18 38 0 0 55 16 W13 17 4 1 S33 8003 SW21 143406 V 10/07-19 45 0 0 47 25 W13 17 4 1 S35 5582 SW20 99124 G 10/07-20 51 0 0 44 34 NW12 16 3 1 S38 3160 W17 54843 F 10/07-21 58 5 1 43 43 NW12 16 3 1 S40 739 W16 10562 P 10/07-22 65 5 1 42 47 NW12 12 3 1 S43 601 W14 8000 P 10/07-23 80 5 1 40 51 NW10 10 2 1 S44 464 NW13 5438 P 10/08-00 87 39 17 41 51 NW10 10 2 1 S43 326 NW10 2877 P 10/08-01 87 39 17 39 55 NW10 10 2 1 S36 309 NW 9 2489 P 10/08-02 87 39 17 36 62 N10 10 2 1 S28 293 NW 8 2101 P 10/08-03 87 39 17 35 65 N10 10 2 1 S21 277 NW 7 1713 P 10/08-04 87 39 17 36 63 N 8 8 2 1 S15 298 NW 6 1549 P 10/08-05 87 39 17 35 66 N 7 7 2 1 S12 319 NW 5 1385 P 10/08-06 89 80 68 34 71 N 6 6 2 1 SE12 340 NW 5 1220 P 10/08-07 89 80 68 34 77 N 7 7 2 1 SE15 1842 NW 9 27191 P 10/08-08 89 80 68 35 81 N 9 9 2 1 E21 3345 N14 53161 F 10/08-09 89 80 68 43 68 N13 17 2 1 E29 4847 N18 79131 G 10/08-10 89 80 68 45 66 N14 21 2 1 E25 5172 N20 85777 G 10/08-11 89 80 68 46 68 N14 21 2 1 NE20 5496 N20 92423 G 10/08-12 90 60 38 47 68 N14 21 2 1 NE14 5820 N20 99069 G 10/08-13 90 60 38 47 68 N14 22 2 1 NE10 5875 N20 98505 G 10/08-14 90 60 38 48 66 N15 22 2 1 NE 7 5930 N20 97941 G 10/08-15 90 60 38 48 66 N15 23 2 1 NE 6 5984 N18 97376 G 10/08-16 90 60 38 48 64 N15 22 2 1 NE 6 5653 N18 93047 G 10/08-17 90 60 38 47 64 N14 22 2 1 N 7 5322 N20 88717 G 10/08-18 72 42 19 45 70 N14 21 2 1 N 8 4991 N20 84387 G 10/08-19 72 42 19 40 83 N14 21 2 1 N 8 3472 N18 58344 F 10/08-20 72 42 19 38 89 N14 21 2 1 N 8 1953 N17 32300 P 10/08-21 72 42 19 37 92 N14 21 2 1 N 8 435 N16 6257 P 10/08-22 72 42 19 36 92 N13 18 2 1 N 9 416 N15 5483 P 10/08-23 72 42 19 35 95 N10 16 2 1 N 9 396 N14 4708 P 10/09-00 71 30 9 36 94 N 9 14 2 1 N 9 377 N12 3934 P 10/09-01 71 30 9 35 97 N 8 8 2 1 N 7 444 N12 4293 P 10/09-02 71 30 9 33 100 N 8 8 2 1 NW 5 512 N10 4651 P 10/09-03 71 30 9 33 100 N 8 8 2 1 NW 2 579 NW10 5010 P 10/09-04 71 30 9 33 100 N 8 8 2 1 W 3 492 NW 9 3981 P 10/09-05 71 30 9 32 100 N 7 7 2 1 W 5 404 N 8 2952 P 10/09-06 59 21 4 32 100 N 6 6 2 1 SW 6 316 N 7 1923 P 10/09-07 59 21 4 32 100 N 3 3 2 1 W 7 1834 NW 6 7207 P 10/09-08 59 21 4 34 99 N 2 2 2 1 W 8 3352 NW 5 12490 P 10/09-09 59 21 4 45 64 CALM 1 2 1 W 9 4870 W 5 17774 P 10/09-10 59 21 4 49 56 CALM 1 2 1 W10 5407 W 6 25265 P 10/09-11 59 21 4 51 54 SE 2 2 2 1 W10 5943 W 6 32756 P 10/09-12 49 19 4 52 51 SE 3 3 2 1 W12 6480 W 7 40246 F 10/09-13 49 19 4 53 50 SE 6 6 2 1 W13 6762 W 7 41051 F 10/09-14 49 19 4 54 48 S 8 8 2 1 W14 7044 SW 7 41856 F 10/09-15 49 19 4 54 48 S 9 14 2 1 W15 7326 SW 7 42660 F 10/09-16 49 19 4 54 48 S 8 8 2 1 W15 6464 SW 7 39271 P 10/09-17 49 19 4 53 50 S 6 6 2 1 W15 5602 SW 8 35882 P 10/09-18 33 14 3 50 55 S 5 5 2 1 W15 4739 SW 8 32493 P 10/09-19 33 14 3 45 67 S 5 5 2 1 W14 3264 S 7 22168 P 10/09-20 33 14 3 42 71 S 5 5 2 1 NW12 1789 S 7 11843 P 10/09-21 33 14 3 41 72 SW 6 6 2 1 NW10 314 S 6 1518 P 10/09-22 33 14 3 41 72 SW 6 6 2 1 NW10 289 S 5 1300 P 10/09-23 33 14 3 40 73 SW 7 7 2 1 NW10 263 SW 5 1082 P 10/10-00 21 8 2 40 70 W 7 7 2 1 NW10 238 SW 5 864 P 10/10-01 21 8 2 39 71 W 7 7 2 1 NW12 226 SW 5 884 P 10/10-02 21 8 2 37 75 W 8 8 2 1 NW12 213 W 5 904 P 10/10-03 21 8 2 37 72 W 8 8 2 1 NW13 201 W 6 924 P 10/10-04 21 8 2 37 71 W 8 8 2 1 NW14 186 W 6 914 P 10/10-05 21 8 2 36 70 W 8 8 3 1 NW15 171 W 6 904 P 10/10-06 8 3 1 36 71 W 8 8 3 1 NW16 156 W 7 894 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...JUSTIN WHITESELL REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111006.HORSE.01/BOU