FNUS74 KEWX 061257 FWSEWX SPOT FORECAST FOR BASTROP COMPLEX FIRE - OLD POTATO START...BASTROP OEM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 757 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0747 CDT ON OCTOBER 06. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND FRIDAY... .DISCUSSION... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE THESE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRES DEVELOPING IN EXTREMELY DRY FUELS COULD PROMOTE RAPID FIRE SPREAD...MAKING FOR ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO THE RIO GRANDE...OR WEST OF THE ROCKSPRINGS AND BRACKETTVILLE AREAS. THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DURING THE BREEZY PERIODS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST FROM NOON TO 10 PM. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90. MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 15 TO 16 MPH AFTER 10AM. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 15 TO 16 MPH AFTER 10AM. CWR.................10 PERCENT. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-4500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4600-5000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 16 TO 22 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........81 81 65 54 49 49 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............66 71 79 86 89 89 RH..............89 85 68 56 50 48 20 FT WIND......SE 2 SE 8 SE 12 S 14 SE 16 SE 15 20 FT WIND GUST.5 15 20 20 25 25 EYE LEVEL WIND..SE 2 SE 6 SE 9 S 11 SE 12 SE 12 EYE LEVEL WIND..5 15 20 20 25 25 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72. MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. CWR.................10 PERCENT. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3400-5200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2600-2800 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 23 TO 29 MPH. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........49 54 54 50 75 75 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............88 84 79 76 75 73 RH..............49 57 68 78 84 88 20 FT WIND......SE 15 SE 14 SE 14 SE 9 SE 6 SE 5 20 FT WIND GUST.25 20 20 15 10 EYE LEVEL WIND..SE 11 SE 10 SE 10 SE 7 SE 5 SE 4 EYE LEVEL WIND..25 20 20 15 10 5 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 4 4 3 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90. MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 15 MPH AFTER NOON. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AFTER NOON. CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2900-4800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500-5000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 20 TO 24 MPH. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........89 89 81 57 57 57 WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............72 73 78 84 88 90 RH..............88 86 74 60 51 46 20 FT WIND......SE 5 SE 7 SE 10 SE 13 SE 15 SE 15 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 15 20 25 25 EYE LEVEL WIND..SE 4 SE 5 SE 7 SE 10 SE 11 SE 11 EYE LEVEL WIND..5 10 15 20 25 25 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 4 $$ FORECASTER...05 REQUESTED BY...STEVEN LONG TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20111006.BASTR.01/EWX