FNUS73 KFGF 070946 FWSFGF SPOT FORECAST FOR JUNEBERRY THREE...MN DNR FORESTRY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 446 AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2023 CDT ON OCTOBER 06. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING... ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION... CRITICAL ISSUE TODAY WILL BE WIND AND THEN HOW MUCH DRY AIR GETS DRAWN NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN MANITOBA. WHAT WE EXPECT TO HAPPEN IS THAT AT LEAST THROUGH NOON IS THAT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT AND THERE WILL AN INCREASE IN THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURE AS AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THUS DONT LOOK FOR MUCH OF A FALL IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH NOON...AS DEW POINTS RISE AND TEMPERATURES ONLY RISE SLOWLY. IT WILL BE WINDY THROUGH NOON WITH A CONTINUED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO OVER 40 MPH LATE MORNING. OF COURSE WIND SPEEDS CAN VARY DEPENDING ON WHERE INSTRUMENTS ARE POSITIONED ABOVE GROUND LEVEL AND DUE TO EXPOSURE. THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE THE LOW MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AND A DRY SLOT TO ADVANCE FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...NOT LIKELY TO REALLY HIT THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 2 PM. IN THAT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD WE EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT MORE AND TEMPS TO WARM SOME AND DEW POINTS TO DROP AND LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE FROM THE DUE SOUTH DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 30 TO 40 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS OVER 50 MPH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AGAIN HOW STRONG ACTUAL WIND SPEEDS WILL GET WILL VARY DUE TO EXPOSURE. BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY WELL MIXED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON UP TO 6000 FT AGL AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS TO BE BROUGHT DOWN. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BURN AREA WILL BE ON THE EDGE BETWEEN THE BIT MOISTURE AIRMASS TO THE EAST AND THE DRIER AIR MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CHANCE IS SMALL BUT IT IS POSSIBLE. ANY STORM THAT WOULD FORM NEARBY WOULD BRING ERRATIC WIND DIRECTION AND SPEEDS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER AFTER DARK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80. MIN HUMIDITY........26-31 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. SOUTH WINDS 31 TO 36 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-2800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7400-8800 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 38 TO 44 MPH INCREASING TO 48 TO 55 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........71 69 65 61 53 46 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC TEMP............65 66 70 74 76 77 RH..............54 56 55 46 43 37 20 FT WIND......SE 16 SE 20 SE 23 S 26 S 32 S 32 20 FT WIND GUST.30 35 40 45 55 55 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58. MAX HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 24 TO 29 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH DECREASING TO 14 TO 19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 4600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN DECREASING TO 2400 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING INCREASING TO 2900-3000 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 47 TO 56 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND DECREASING TO 29 TO 38 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN INCREASING TO 36 TO 40 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........42 48 57 65 67 66 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV........ TEMP............73 66 63 60 59 57 RH..............31 38 44 55 61 69 20 FT WIND......S 26 S 24 S 23 S 21 SW 19 SW 17 20 FT WIND GUST.45 40 35 35 30 25 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66. MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. $$ FORECASTER...RIDDLE REQUESTED BY...DOUG MIEDTKE TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20111006.JUNEB.02/FGF