FNUS75 KPUB 072320
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR EHS BON FIRE...KIOWA COUNTY DEM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
520 PM MDT FRI OCT 7 2011

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION WILL
SPIN MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BON FIRE AREA THIS
EVENING.  SHORT TERM FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS VICINITY DURING THE SCHEDULED
TIME OF THE BON FIRE.  PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...PENNY SIZE HAIL AND
HEAVY RAIN.  HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES
IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR MORE.  BASED ON A DISCUSSION
JUST OUT FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN THE 2100-2400 TIME FRAME...AS
THE DRY LINE RETREATS WESTWARD INTO THE AREA.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    DEVELOPING...WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
                    PRODUCING HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...WIND
                    GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR MORE...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.
                    GREATEST SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED TO BE
                    2100-2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47F.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.

$$
FORECASTER...WALROD
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS SORENSEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111007.EHSBO.01/PUB