FNUS75 KGJT 090230
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR EAGLESNEST...VAIL FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
830 PM MDT SAT OCT 8 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON OCTOBER 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF CENTERED OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES THIS EVENING WILL BE
SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD ON SUNDAY BRINGING IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND
TURNING WINDS MORE TO THE WEST. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND THIS WESTERLY
FLOW MAY ALLOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO POP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
WARMING INCREASES THE CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD HELP SMOKE DISPERSAL
REACH THE GOOD CATEGORY HOWEVER. AS TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW MORE
DEGREES ALOFT ON MONDAY...MIXING HEIGHTS MAY LOWER WITH INVERSION
ALOFT DEVELOPING BUT WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGH THIS MIXED
LAYER...GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN EXIST. HOWEVER STRONG AND
QUICKLY DEVELOPING SURFACE INVERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
LEADING TO POOR DISPERSAL CONDITIONS.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....33 TO 38 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH OR LESS BECOMING WEST TO
                    NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH LATE MORNING INCREASING TO GOOD
                    BY MID AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL OR LESS THROUGH LATE MORNING
                    INCREASING TO NEAR 5500 FT AGL BY MID AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 12 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....22-27 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........63-68%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    BY SUNRISE.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR IN THE EARLY EVENING...DECREASING TO POOR
                    AFTER SUNSET.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL
                    BY LATE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.

.COLUMBUS DAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....35-40 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO GOOD BY
                    MID AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO NEAR 4500 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...T TALBOT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111009.EAGLE.01/GJT