FNUS74 KLZK 091204 FWSLZK SPOT FORECAST FOR 40 HOG JAW 1...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 704 AM CDT SUN OCT 9 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON OCTOBER 09. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER PERSISTS ACROSS THE STATE AS DRY CONDITIONS AND DROUGHT HAVE KEPT FINE FUEL MOISTURE LOW. MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED 20 FT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT GUSTS OF 10 MPH TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST STARTING MON. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TUE...THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE WED INTO THU. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........75 AT IGNITION...MAX 82. RH..................51 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 41 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 6 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTHEAST 21 TO 23 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 6600 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....4. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........PC PC PC PC PC PC PC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............75 78 79 80 81 81 80 RH..............51 47 44 43 42 41 43 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE E 20 FT WIND SPD..10 12 12 12 10 9 8 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 20 20 15 10 EYE LVL WND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE E EYE LVL WND SPD.6 7 7 7 6 5 5 EYE LVL WND GST.10 10 10 10 10 8 5 TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.22 23 23 23 23 23 23 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 60. RH..................MAX 83 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....EAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTHEAST 18 TO 25 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A. STABILITY CLASS.....4. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........PC PC PC PC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............78 74 71 69 68 67 66 65 64 64 63 62 RH..............47 53 58 61 65 67 70 72 73 75 77 81 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E E E E E E E 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 EYE LVL WND DIR.E E E E E E E E E E E E EYE LVL WND SPD.4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 EYE LVL WND GST.5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.24 25 24 23 22 22 22 22 22 21 20 18 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 .COLUMBUS DAY... 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE E E 20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 $$ FORECASTER...62 REQUESTED BY...BEN ROWLAND TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111009.40HOG.01/LZK