FNUS73 KAPX 111314
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR CARPENTER CREEK...STATE OF MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
914 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON OCTOBER 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED
TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA REMAINS IN CONTROL.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING...AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO FALL TO
AROUND 40 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........75 AT IGNITION...MAX 79.
RH..................41 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 22 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9200 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1400) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT
                    (2200).

TIME (EDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........42  40  41  42  43
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............75  77  77  77  76
RH..............41  39  37  37  37
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   7   7   6
20 FT WIND GUST.10  15  15  15  15
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5
SMOKE DISP......14001900220021001600

$$
FORECASTER...NICK SCHWARTZ
REQUESTED BY...RANDY MCKENZIE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111011.CARPE.01/APX