FNUS73 KAPX 111351
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR LOVELS RD BURN...STATE OF MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
951 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON OCTOBER 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH STABLE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS
TO THE WIND...BUT THE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
10 MPH.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........72 AT IGNITION...MAX 78.
RH..................42 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    SOUTH 4 TO 8 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 22 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7700 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1200) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT
                    (2000).

TIME (EDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........41  39  39  40  40
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............72  74  74  74  73
RH..............42  41  41  41  41
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  15  15
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5
SMOKE DISP......12001800200019001400

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 51.
RH..................MAX 86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........44  52  56  56  56  56  56  56  51  51  51  51
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............70  65  63  60  59  57  57  56  55  54  54  53
RH..............44  52  54  60  64  69  72  74  80  83  83  86
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..6   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.15  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

$$
FORECASTER...JEFF LUTZ
REQUESTED BY...RANDY MCKENZIE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111011.LOVEL.01/APX