FNUS73 KAPX 111317
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR SUNRISE   6...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
917 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON OCTOBER 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...WITH STABLE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR THE
DAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH. THERE
WILL BE SOME GUSTS TO THE WIND...BUT THE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH. TONIGHT EXPECT SLOW RECOVERY IN
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........64 AT IGNITION...MAX 78.
RH..................50 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 3 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    SOUTH 4 TO 8 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 22 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE INCREASING
                    TO 7000 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1900).

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........46  44  39  37  37  38  38
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............64  68  71  74  74  74  73
RH..............54  49  44  41  41  40  41
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..3   4   5   6   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.5   10  10  10  15  15  10
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SMOKE DISP......100 500 12001800190017001200

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 48.
RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........42  48  51  51  51  51  51  51  49  49  49  49
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............69  64  61  58  56  55  54  53  53  52  51  51
RH..............47  54  60  67  74  77  83  86  86  89  93  93
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..4   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   0   0   0   0

$$
FORECASTER...JEFF LUTZ
REQUESTED BY...JOHN ELLIOTT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111011.SUNRI.01/APX