FNUS73 KAPX 121330
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR CARPENTER CREEK...STATE OF MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
930 AM EDT WED OCT 12 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON OCTOBER 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG ON FOR ONE MORE DAY. THIS IS
GOING TO PROVIDE WARM DRY CONDITIONS. WITH THE HIGH...THIN CLOUDS
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WHETHER THE CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN...PREVENTING THE TEMPERATURES NOT TO GET TO PREDICTED
VALUES...AND THUS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP. AT THIS
POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE THIN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH SUNSHINE
FOR US TO MIX TO DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING THE WARM DRY AIR DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........76 AT IGNITION...MAX 81.
RH..................33 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 22 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 6 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 14 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9500 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1000) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT
                    (1300).

TIME (EDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........51  51  47  40  36
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............76  78  80  80  77
RH..............33  27  24  24  26
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..6   7   7   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  15  15
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   4   4
SMOKE DISP......1000130012001000700

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 54.
RH..................MAX 83 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........36  37  38  42  56  61  63  68  71  76  87  93
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............72  68  66  64  62  60  59  58  58  57  57  56
RH..............30  35  43  51  60  69  72  77  77  80  80  80
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..6   4   2   2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1

$$
FORECASTER...JEFF LUTZ
REQUESTED BY...RANDY MCKENZIE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111012.CARPE.02/APX