FNUS73 KAPX 121344 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR HOW S THAT AGAIN...DNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 944 AM EDT WED OCT 12 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON OCTOBER 12. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER...WITH VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR THE BURN SITE. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW MINIMUM RH VALUES TO FALL TO CRITICAL OR NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS. IF CLOUDS ARE THICKER AND LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED... WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RH VALUES...BUT THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...PROVIDING AN UPSLOPE FLOW FOR THE BURN AREA. LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND PARTIAL SHELTERING SHOULD LIMIT THE GUSTINESS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS IN THE MID TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON. GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........74 AT IGNITION...MAX 81. RH..................34 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 23 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9500 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (400) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (600). TIME (EDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........61 61 58 53 51 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............74 74 75 75 73 RH..............34 27 23 22 24 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 7 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 SMOKE DISP......400 500 600 500 500 $$ FORECASTER...NICK SCHWARTZ REQUESTED BY...RANDY MCKENZIE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111012.HOWST.01/APX