FNUS73 KAPX 121359 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR LOVELS RD BURN...STATE OF MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 959 AM EDT WED OCT 12 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON OCTOBER 12. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DAY OF DEEP MIXING AND HIGH HAINES INDICES AS THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECENT SMOKE DISPERSAL. APPEARS AS THOUGH WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY...YET THERE CAN STILL BE GUSTS AT TIMES REACHING IN THE UPPER TEENS. THE FACT THAT THE BURN SITE IS SOMEWHAT PROTECTED AND SHELTERED WILL TEMPER MOST OF THE GUSTS TO WHERE IT MAY NOT BE AS MUCH OF A CONCERN. STILL...THERE IS AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DUE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY REACHING NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS. THE EXPECTATION OF THICKENING CLOUD COVER COULD VERY WELL TEMPER THE DEEPEST MIXING AND WARMING IF THIS OCCURS A BIT EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT THOUGHT OF LATE AFTERNOON. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........74 AT IGNITION...MAX 80. RH..................36 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 26 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST 5 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 13 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9300 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (900) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1200). TIME (EDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........51 51 48 42 38 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............74 76 78 78 76 RH..............36 30 26 25 27 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SE 20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 8 8 8 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 4 4 SMOKE DISP......900 1200120011001000 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 51. RH..................MAX 96 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........39 41 42 47 61 66 67 70 72 77 88 93 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............70 66 63 61 59 57 57 56 55 54 54 53 RH..............32 39 47 56 66 77 77 80 83 86 86 93 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE E E E 20 FT WIND SPD..7 5 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 $$ FORECASTER...JEFF LUTZ REQUESTED BY...RANDY MCKENZIE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111012.LOVEL.01/APX