FNUS73 KAPX 121426 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR MEAUWATAKA...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1026 AM EDT WED OCT 12 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1330 EDT ON OCTOBER 12. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DAY OF WARM TEMPERATURES...DEEP MIXING AND HIGH HAINES INDICES AS THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECENT SMOKE DISPERSAL AND LOW HUMIDITY. APPEARS AS THOUGH WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY...YET THERE CAN STILL BE GUSTS AT TIMES REACHING IN THE UPPER TEENS. THUS...THERE IS ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DUE MAINLY TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY REACHING NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS. THE EXPECTATION OF THICKENING CLOUD COVER COULD VERY WELL TEMPER THE DEEPEST MIXING AND WARMING IF THIS OCCURS A BIT EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT THOUGHT OF LATE AFTERNOON. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...BY 8PM...FIRE DANGER WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-15 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........77 AT IGNITION...MAX 80. RH..................33 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 27 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 16 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF A LAKE BREEZE COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVER THE BURN SITE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 13 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9900 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1200) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1200). TIME (EDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........52 52 49 43 40 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............76 77 78 77 75 RH..............37 32 30 30 32 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 8 8 8 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......900 12001100900 600 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 54. RH..................MAX 86 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 13 MPH INCREASING TO 6 TO 15 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1400 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MIN 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........40 40 40 44 58 63 66 73 76 80 88 93 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............71 67 65 63 61 60 59 58 58 57 57 56 RH..............35 40 46 53 61 69 72 75 75 77 77 80 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE E E E E 20 FT WIND SPD..7 5 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 SMOKE DISP......300 200 100 0 0 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY... RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .SATURDAY... NUMEROUS SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH. .SUNDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...SCOTT DICKSON REQUESTED BY...JOE RASPOTNIK TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111012.MEAUW.01/APX