FNUS73 KAPX 121338 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR SUNRISE 8...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 938 AM EDT WED OCT 12 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON OCTOBER 12. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DAY OF DEEP MIXING AND HIGH HAINES INDICES AS THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECENT SMOKE DISPERSAL. APPEARS AS THOUGH WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY...YET THERE CAN STILL BE GUSTS AT TIMES REACHING IN THE UPPER TEENS. THE FACT THAT THE BURN SITE IS WELL PROTECTED AND SHELTERED WILL TEMPER THE GUSTS TO WHERE IT MAY NOT BE AS MUCH OF A CONCERN. STILL...THERE IS AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DUE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY REACHING NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS. THE EXPECTATION OF THICKENING CLOUD COVER COULD VERY WELL TEMPER THE DEEPEST MIXING AND WARMING IF THIS OCCURS A BIT EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT THOUGHT OF LATE AFTERNOON. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...BY 8PM...FIRE DANGER WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........75 AT IGNITION...MAX 79. RH..................36 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 26 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTS TO 16 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9700 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (400) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1200). TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........62 62 62 59 54 52 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............71 74 74 75 74 72 RH..............46 37 30 26 25 27 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 6 7 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 SMOKE DISP......400 800 1100120012001100 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 50. RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........53 55 56 60 70 74 75 77 78 83 93 98 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............68 64 62 60 58 57 56 55 54 54 53 53 RH..............32 38 47 56 66 77 80 83 86 86 89 89 20 FT WIND DIR..SE E E E E E E E E E E E 20 FT WIND SPD..6 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY... RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. LIGHT WINDS. .SATURDAY... NUMEROUS SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH. .SUNDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...SCOTT DICKSON REQUESTED BY...JOHN ELLIOTT TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111012.SUNRI.01/APX