FNUS76 KLOX 110306
FWSLOX

SPOT FORECAST FOR BROKEN BRIDGE...CA STATE PARKS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
806 PM PDT MON OCT 10 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 PDT ON OCTOBER 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM AND COOL FRONT WILL WASH OUT
OVER THE BURN AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE WEATHER
SYSTEM...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL SPIKE UPWARD ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE PATTERN...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXIST FOR
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IF THE
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN STRENGTHENS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BURN AREA COULD WARM TO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH HUMIDITIES
AROUND 25 PERCENT. A COOLING TREND SHOULD DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BREAK DOWN AND
ALLOWS FOR A RETURN OF AN ONSHORE FLOW REGIME.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND
    FOG IN THE MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
    POSSIBLE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-72 DEGREES.
MIN HUMIDITY........66-70 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL
    1100 HOURS...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST
    10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
 RIDGETOP...........NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15
    MPH...DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE
    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL OR LESS UNTIL 1000 HOURS...LIFTING
    TO 4500 FT AGL BY 1300 HOURS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60 DEGREES.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-74 PERCENT LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE
    EVENING HOURS...THEN FALLING TO 50-54
    PERCENT BY DAYBREAK.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
    UNTIL 2300 HOURS...THEN BECOMING EAST
    TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
    25 MPH.
 RIDGETOP...........NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
    GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL EARLY...FALLING TO 1000 FT AGL OR
    LESS BY 2000 HOURS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH UNTIL 2100
    HOURS..BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10
    TO 20 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....88-92 DEGREES.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-29 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
    TO 25 MPH UNTIL 1200 HOURS...BECOMING WEST 5
    TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
 RIDGETOP...........NORTH TO NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
    25 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL OR LESS UNTIL 1000 HOURS...LIFTING
    TO 3000 FT AGL BY 1300 HOURS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.


FORECASTER...HALL
REQUESTED BY...LISA ANDREANO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111012.BROKE.01/LOX

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