FNUS72 KMFL 141230
FWSMFL

SPOT FORECAST FOR FRED S FIRST...BIG CYPRESS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
830 AM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON OCTOBER 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING BRINGING IN DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
DECREASING AGAIN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THE TRANSPORT
WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH
FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN TO
LESS THAN 5 MPH TONIGHT.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S
AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE DISPERSION INDEX
WILL ALSO BE IN THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE BURN SITE WHICH IS
IN THE GENERALLY GOOD RANGE. HOWEVER...THE DISPERSION INDEX FOR
TONIGHT WILL BE LESS THAN 5 WHICH IS VERY POOR.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 45 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2900-4500 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 2 TO 8 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....0 INCREASING TO 44.
LVORI...............5.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM   9 PM   11 PM
SKY (%).........46     46     46     46     47     47
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............88     90     89     84     79     75
RH..............54     47     45     55     67     74
20 FT WIND......NE 2   NE 4   NE 4   NE 4   NE 3   NE 2
20 FT WIND GUST.5      10     10     10     5      5
EYE LEVEL WIND..NE 2   NE 4   NE 4   NE 4   NE 3   NE 2
EYE LEVEL WIND..5      10     10     10     5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....2900   4500   4500   4500   2900   1800
MIXNG WIND......NE 5   NE 8   NE 8   NE 8   NE 6   NE 3
DISPERSION IDX..28     44     44     44     28     17
LVORI...........5      5      5      9      9      9
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     10     10     10     10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 69.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 81 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900-4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-1800 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 1 TO 8 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....44 DECREASING TO 1.
LVORI...............9.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 88.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 51 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3200-4300 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 17
                    MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....1 INCREASING TO 46 EARLY IN THE MORNING.
LVORI...............3.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...BAXTER
REQUESTED BY...JUSTIN TURNBO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111014.FREDS.01/MFL