FNUS73 KDLH 161026
FWSDLH

SPOT FORECAST FOR PAGAMI WILDFIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
526 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1510 CDT ON OCTOBER 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.


.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOVER NEAR HUDSON BAY THROUGH
MONDAY KEEPING THE AREA IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
MONDAY. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING TO
AROUND 6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS
AROUND 35-40 MPH TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. INCREASED WINDS FOR
TONIGHT AS EARLY MORNING MODEL RUNS ARE SUGGESTING LAPSE RATES
REMAIN STEEP AND WINDS REMAIN GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO
                    18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500 FT AGL LATE IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 6300 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 40 TO 45 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (25000) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (117000) LATE
                    IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (218300) EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (196000) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
TEMP............37     40     41     42     43     42
RH..............80     70     59     47     45     48
20 FT WIND DIR..W      W      W      W      W      W
20 FT WIND SPD..9      10     16     17     17     18
20 FT WIND GUST.18     22     30     33     35     37

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    FLURRIES.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-34.
MAX HUMIDITY........81 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 13 TO 17 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL IN THE LATE
                    EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 35 TO 40 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (31000) DECREASING TO POOR (6850) IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
TEMP............40     37     36     36     34     34
RH..............58     64     67     72     75     77
20 FT WIND DIR..W      W      W      W      W      W
20 FT WIND SPD..17     16     14     14     12     12
20 FT WIND GUST.31     28     28     24     23     23

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
                    SHOWERS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 26 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4750 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 35 TO 40 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (36600) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (120800)
                    LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (158500) EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
                    DECREASING TO EXCELLENT (151400) LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
TEMP............32     33     36     39     40     39
RH..............78     78     69     64     62     64
20 FT WIND DIR..W      W      NW      NW     NW     NW
20 FT WIND SPD..12     14     14     14     14     14
20 FT WIND GUST.23     25     27     28     28     25

$$
FORECASTER...AMANDA
REQUESTED BY...MIKE LOCKE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20111015.PAGAM.02/DLH