FNUS75 KGJT 152002
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEARS EARS RX...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
202 PM MDT SAT OCT 15 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1356 MDT ON OCTOBER 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING
HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE ALONG WITH AFTERNOON GRADIENT WINDS. THE
SURFACE-BASED INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO SET UP BEFORE SUNSET AND WILL
ONLY BE WEAK TO MODERATE STRENGTH OVERNIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. ON SUNDAY A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO INCREASE WEST GRADIENT WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.
THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT AND
LIMIT VERTICAL MIXING.

.THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET...

SKY/WEATHER.........PERIODS OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-75 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........20%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX OF 5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 MPH.

.TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH CLOUDS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-60%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 2-5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (15000 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 MPH.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........24-29%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE MORNING BECOMING
                    WEST 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000 INCREASING TO GOOD
                    BY 1400.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 4000 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...MICHAEL ST  MARTIN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111015.BEARS.01/GJT