FNUS73 KDLH 162025
FWSDLH

SPOT FORECAST FOR PAGAMI WILDFIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
325 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1456 CDT ON OCTOBER 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...SUBSIDING
SOME OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...AS
CLOUDS THICKEN.

RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS WELL...AND WINDS WILL AGAIN BE
STRONG OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. GUSTS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND MONDAY UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT DUE TO THE WARM SURFACE. DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY...HUMIDITIES
SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN TODAY.

WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME ON TUESDAY...AS THEY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    SNOW SHOWERS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30
                    PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35.
MAX HUMIDITY........82 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 15 TO 18 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 13
                    MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 32 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 35 TO 40 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (158500) DECREASING TO POOR (7700) IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
TEMP............39     37     36     35     34     34
RH..............59     64     69     72     75     78
20 FT WIND DIR..W      W      W      W      W      W
20 FT WIND SPD..16     15     15     14     14     12
20 FT WIND GUST.33     31     31     30     28     25

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
                    SHOWERS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
MIN HUMIDITY........55 TO 60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 14 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 29 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 12 MPH EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 35 TO 40 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (42200) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (127700)
                    LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (139800) EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
                    DECREASING TO EXCELLENT (133700) LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
TEMP............33     34     37     40     41     40
RH..............82     82     75     67     59     59
20 FT WIND DIR..W      W      W      W      NW     NW
20 FT WIND SPD..12     14     14     15     15     14
20 FT WIND GUST.23     24     26     30     30     25

$$
FORECASTER...DEAN M.
REQUESTED BY...MIKE LOCKE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20111016.PAGAM.02/DLH