FNUS75 KBOU 161912 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR ELEVEN MILE SP RX...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 102 PM MDT SUN OCT 16 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A FAST MOVING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CLIP COLORADO LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS...RAIN AND SNOW TO THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE PLAINS. ON MONDAY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE PLAINS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM EXITING THE STATE. THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....34. MAX HUMIDITY........56%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 9-15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1500...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....55. MIN HUMIDITY........26%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 14-24 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 25-36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 7400-8400 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .MONDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....28. MAX HUMIDITY........88%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 6-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 13-24 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 8-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6400-7400 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 0300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2300. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....51. MIN HUMIDITY........25%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN NORTH 5-6 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 5600-6600 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100. GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR ELEVENMILESP RX. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/16-13 12 0 0 67 16 W20 31 2 1 W44 9236 W25 200113 E 10/16-14 12 0 0 68 14 W21 33 2 1 W43 9848 W25 222415 E 10/16-15 12 0 0 67 14 W21 33 2 1 W41 10461 W26 244717 E 10/16-16 12 0 0 66 15 W20 31 2 1 W41 8980 W25 203420 E 10/16-17 12 0 0 63 17 W17 28 2 1 W41 7499 W24 162122 E 10/16-18 12 0 0 59 21 W15 24 2 1 W41 6018 W23 120824 V 10/16-19 12 0 0 55 26 W12 20 2 1 W43 4091 W18 81175 G 10/16-20 12 0 0 50 32 W 9 15 2 1 W44 2165 W14 41526 F 10/16-21 41 0 0 46 38 W 7 7 2 1 W45 238 W 9 1877 P 10/16-22 41 0 0 44 40 W 6 6 2 1 W46 229 W10 1946 P 10/16-23 41 0 0 43 40 W 6 6 2 1 W46 220 W10 2016 P 10/17-00 49 10 2 42 41 W 7 7 2 1 W46 211 W12 2085 P 10/17-01 49 10 2 40 44 W 8 8 2 1 W43 216 W13 2274 P 10/17-02 49 10 2 38 48 W 8 14 2 1 W38 221 W13 2464 P 10/17-03 49 10 2 37 52 W 9 15 2 1 W35 225 W14 2653 P 10/17-04 49 10 2 35 55 W 9 16 2 1 W32 254 W17 3914 P 10/17-05 49 10 2 34 56 W10 16 3 1 W31 283 W21 5176 P 10/17-06 69 10 2 34 54 W12 18 3 1 W32 311 W24 6437 P 10/17-07 69 10 2 39 47 W14 22 3 1 W38 364 W23 7429 P 10/17-08 69 10 2 44 39 W16 25 2 1 W46 417 W23 8421 P 10/17-09 69 10 2 49 34 W18 30 2 1 NW55 469 W23 9413 P 10/17-10 69 10 2 51 31 W21 32 2 1 NW56 2703 NW28 83506 G 10/17-11 69 10 2 52 30 NW22 35 2 1 NW55 4936 NW32 157601 E 10/17-12 64 10 2 52 29 NW22 35 2 1 NW54 7169 NW37 231695 E 10/17-13 64 10 2 53 27 NW21 33 2 1 NW56 7620 NW36 232353 E 10/17-14 64 10 2 54 26 N20 31 2 1 NW60 8072 NW33 233012 E 10/17-15 50 10 2 54 26 N17 28 2 1 NW60 8524 NW31 233671 E 10/17-16 50 10 2 52 27 N15 25 2 1 NW55 8150 NW29 207816 E 10/17-17 50 10 2 50 30 N14 22 2 1 NW48 7777 NW26 181962 E 10/17-18 35 4 1 49 31 N12 18 2 1 NW43 7403 NW24 156108 E 10/17-19 35 4 1 47 32 NW 5 5 2 1 NW44 6195 NW22 121878 V 10/17-20 35 4 1 41 41 NW 5 5 2 1 NW47 4988 NW18 87649 G 10/17-21 35 4 1 39 48 NW 3 3 2 1 NW51 3780 NW16 53420 F 10/17-22 35 4 1 37 58 NW 3 3 2 1 NW52 3240 NW14 42183 F 10/17-23 35 4 1 35 67 W 3 3 2 1 NW52 2701 NW13 30945 P 10/18-00 35 4 1 35 73 W 3 3 2 1 NW53 2162 NW10 19708 P 10/18-01 35 4 1 32 84 W 3 3 2 1 NW54 1657 NW10 15079 P 10/18-02 35 4 1 31 88 W 3 3 2 1 NW56 1152 NW10 10449 P 10/18-03 35 4 1 30 88 W 3 3 2 1 NW59 647 NW10 5820 P 10/18-04 35 4 1 30 86 NW 3 3 2 1 NW61 553 NW 9 4713 P 10/18-05 35 4 1 30 82 NW 2 2 2 1 NW62 459 NW 9 3606 P 10/18-06 13 0 0 29 82 NW 2 2 2 1 NW64 365 NW 8 2499 P 10/18-07 13 0 0 28 80 NW 3 3 2 1 NW67 376 NW 8 2571 P 10/18-08 13 0 0 29 74 NW 3 3 2 1 N68 387 NW 8 2642 P 10/18-09 13 0 0 33 62 NW 5 5 2 1 N68 399 NW 8 2713 P 10/18-10 13 0 0 37 50 N 5 5 2 1 N67 2078 NW 9 22045 P 10/18-11 13 0 0 42 40 N 3 3 2 1 N64 3757 NW12 41376 F 10/18-12 13 0 0 45 35 N 3 3 2 1 N63 5436 N13 60707 G 10/18-13 13 0 0 47 32 N 3 3 2 1 N62 5872 NW13 67174 G 10/18-14 13 0 0 49 28 N 5 5 2 1 N61 6308 NW14 73641 G 10/18-15 13 0 0 50 27 N 5 5 2 1 N60 6744 NW14 80108 G 10/18-16 13 0 0 51 25 N 5 5 2 1 N60 6549 NW14 75976 G 10/18-17 13 0 0 50 26 N 6 6 2 1 N59 6355 NW13 71843 G 10/18-18 9 1 0 48 28 N 6 6 2 1 N58 6160 NW13 67711 G 10/18-19 9 1 0 43 35 N 6 6 2 1 N55 4428 NW 9 46265 F 10/18-20 9 1 0 38 46 N 6 6 2 1 N54 2696 N 7 24819 P 10/18-21 9 1 0 35 54 N 5 5 2 1 N52 964 N 3 3373 P 10/18-22 9 1 0 33 64 NW 3 3 2 1 N49 835 N 3 2490 P 10/18-23 9 1 0 31 71 NW 3 3 3 1 N47 705 NW 2 1607 P 10/19-00 6 1 0 31 73 W 2 2 3 1 N46 576 CALM 723 P 10/19-01 6 1 0 28 83 W 2 2 3 1 NW45 464 W 2 678 P 10/19-02 6 1 0 27 84 W 2 2 3 1 NW45 353 W 2 632 P 10/19-03 6 1 0 26 83 W 2 2 3 1 NW45 241 W 2 587 P 10/19-04 6 1 0 26 82 W 2 2 3 1 NW44 224 W 3 603 P 10/19-05 6 1 0 26 80 W 3 3 3 1 NW43 207 W 3 618 P 10/19-06 6 1 0 25 81 W 3 3 3 1 NW41 190 W 3 634 P 10/19-07 6 1 0 24 79 W 3 3 1 10/19-08 6 1 0 25 73 SW 5 5 1 10/19-09 6 1 0 30 57 SW 5 5 1 10/19-10 6 1 0 37 42 SW 5 5 1 10/19-11 6 1 0 44 31 SW 5 5 1 10/19-12 8 1 0 48 26 S 5 5 1 10/19-13 8 1 0 50 23 S 5 5 1 10/19-14 8 1 0 54 21 S 5 5 1 10/19-15 8 1 0 55 20 S 5 5 1 10/19-16 8 1 0 57 18 S 5 5 1 10/19-17 8 1 0 56 19 S 5 5 1 10/19-18 14 2 0 54 21 S 5 5 1 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...LARRY LONG REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111017.ELEVE.01/BOU