FNUS75 KBOU 162048 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR LOWER NORTH FORK UNIT 4...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 243 PM MDT SUN OCT 16 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH MONDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....39. MAX HUMIDITY........54%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 7-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. MAX TEMPERATURE.....59. MIN HUMIDITY........28%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 13-23 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN NORTHEAST 9-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 17-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800...THEN 1400-2000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 5000-6000 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 7600-8600 FT AGL UNTIL 1400...THEN 5000-6000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1400...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1500...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .MONDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....33. MAX HUMIDITY........86%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 6-7 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN WEST 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 13-24 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 8-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6800-7800 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 0100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2300. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....54. MIN HUMIDITY........39%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-6 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHEAST 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8-16 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN AROUND 20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 6800-7800 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0900...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR LOWER NORTH FORK UNIT 4. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/16-14 24 0 0 67 21 SW 9 15 2 1 W33 6146 W23 126801 V 10/16-15 24 0 0 67 20 W12 18 2 1 W35 6946 W26 159156 E 10/16-16 24 0 0 67 21 W12 18 2 1 W35 5613 W24 124454 V 10/16-17 24 0 0 64 24 W 9 15 2 1 W33 4281 W23 89753 G 10/16-18 24 0 0 60 28 W 8 13 2 1 W33 2948 W22 55051 F 10/16-19 24 0 0 56 33 W 8 8 2 1 W36 2028 W17 37240 P 10/16-20 24 0 0 51 39 W 8 13 2 1 W38 1107 W14 19429 P 10/16-21 39 0 0 48 44 SW 8 13 2 1 W39 187 W10 1618 P 10/16-22 39 0 0 46 46 SW 9 14 2 1 W36 184 W12 1786 P 10/16-23 39 0 0 45 45 SW 9 15 2 1 W31 181 W13 1954 P 10/17-00 69 20 4 45 44 SW10 16 2 1 W25 178 W14 2123 P 10/17-01 69 20 4 45 45 SW10 17 2 1 W21 173 W14 2124 P 10/17-02 69 20 4 45 45 W10 17 2 1 W16 167 W15 2126 P 10/17-03 70 20 4 44 47 W10 16 2 1 W15 162 W15 2128 P 10/17-04 70 20 4 42 50 W 9 15 2 1 W18 160 W14 1858 P 10/17-05 70 20 4 40 53 W 9 14 2 1 W26 158 W12 1588 P 10/17-06 68 10 2 39 54 W 8 13 2 1 W32 156 W 9 1318 P 10/17-07 68 10 2 40 52 W 7 7 2 1 W36 784 W14 13775 P 10/17-08 68 10 2 43 48 W 7 7 2 1 W37 1411 NW17 26232 P 10/17-09 67 10 2 47 43 NW 8 13 2 1 NW37 2038 NW22 38688 P 10/17-10 67 10 2 52 36 NW13 21 2 1 NW37 4302 NW25 110753 V 10/17-11 67 10 2 56 30 NW18 29 2 1 NW36 6566 NW30 182817 E 10/17-12 52 10 2 58 28 NW22 35 2 1 NW35 8830 NW33 254882 E 10/17-13 52 10 2 55 30 N21 35 2 1 NW33 7248 NW29 192467 E 10/17-14 52 10 2 50 36 N18 30 2 1 NW33 5666 N24 130052 V 10/17-15 52 10 2 46 42 NE15 24 2 1 NW33 4085 N20 67636 G 10/17-16 52 10 2 47 41 NE12 20 2 1 NW37 5356 N21 99846 G 10/17-17 52 10 2 48 40 N 9 15 2 1 NW41 6627 NW22 132055 V 10/17-18 41 3 1 54 33 N 7 7 2 1 NW44 7898 NW24 164264 E 10/17-19 41 3 1 49 41 N 6 6 2 1 NW44 6598 NW22 128848 V 10/17-20 41 3 1 45 50 NW 5 5 2 1 NW43 5298 NW20 93432 G 10/17-21 41 3 1 44 56 W 5 5 2 1 NW43 3997 NW17 58017 F 10/17-22 41 3 1 42 65 W 6 6 2 1 NW44 3035 NW15 42167 F 10/17-23 41 3 1 41 72 W 7 7 2 1 NW45 2073 NW13 26318 P 10/18-00 37 3 1 39 79 W 8 13 2 1 NW45 1111 NW10 10468 P 10/18-01 37 3 1 38 83 W 8 14 2 1 NW43 883 NW10 8048 P 10/18-02 37 3 1 37 84 W 8 14 2 1 NW40 654 NW 9 5628 P 10/18-03 37 3 1 36 84 W 8 13 2 1 NW40 425 NW 9 3208 P 10/18-04 37 3 1 36 85 W 8 8 2 1 NW41 419 NW 8 2818 P 10/18-05 37 3 1 35 85 W 7 7 2 1 NW45 413 NW 7 2427 P 10/18-06 14 0 0 34 86 W 6 6 2 1 NW48 407 NW 6 2037 P 10/18-07 14 0 0 35 83 SW 3 3 2 1 NW52 1952 NW10 27448 P 10/18-08 14 0 0 38 74 S 2 2 2 1 N55 3498 NW14 52859 F 10/18-09 14 0 0 43 61 CALM 1 2 1 N56 5043 NW18 78270 G 10/18-10 14 0 0 47 52 SE 2 2 2 1 N55 6065 NW20 104774 V 10/18-11 14 0 0 49 47 E 5 5 2 1 N52 7086 NW21 131277 V 10/18-12 14 0 0 51 44 NE 7 7 2 1 N48 8107 N22 157780 E 10/18-13 14 0 0 52 42 NE 8 14 2 1 N45 8113 N22 153782 E 10/18-14 14 0 0 52 41 NE 9 15 2 1 N43 8120 NW21 149783 V 10/18-15 14 0 0 53 39 NE 9 15 2 1 N40 8126 NW21 145785 V 10/18-16 14 0 0 52 40 NE 8 13 2 1 N41 7295 NW20 124888 V 10/18-17 14 0 0 51 41 NE 6 6 2 1 N44 6464 N18 103992 V 10/18-18 9 0 0 49 43 NE 5 5 2 1 N46 5633 N17 83095 G 10/18-19 9 0 0 46 49 N 5 5 2 1 N46 3918 NW13 56193 F 10/18-20 9 0 0 43 54 NW 5 5 2 1 N46 2204 NW 9 29291 P 10/18-21 9 0 0 41 56 W 6 6 2 1 N47 490 NW 6 2389 P 10/18-22 9 0 0 40 59 W 7 7 2 1 N47 419 NW 6 2048 P 10/18-23 9 0 0 39 60 W 7 7 2 1 N48 348 W 6 1707 P 10/19-00 5 0 0 38 62 W 8 13 2 1 N48 277 W 6 1367 P 10/19-01 5 0 0 37 62 W 8 14 2 1 N48 259 W 6 1302 P 10/19-02 5 0 0 36 62 W 8 14 2 1 N46 240 W 6 1237 P 10/19-03 5 0 0 36 62 W 8 13 2 1 N45 222 W 6 1172 P 10/19-04 5 0 0 35 63 W 7 7 2 1 N44 218 W 6 991 P 10/19-05 5 0 0 35 64 SW 6 6 2 1 N44 214 W 5 810 P 10/19-06 7 1 0 34 66 SW 5 5 2 1 N43 210 W 3 630 P 10/19-07 7 1 0 35 64 SW 3 3 2 1 N41 720 W 3 3020 P 10/19-08 7 1 0 39 55 S 3 3 2 1 N39 1229 W 5 5411 P 10/19-09 7 1 0 45 44 S 3 3 2 1 N37 1739 W 5 7801 P 10/19-10 7 1 0 51 36 S 3 3 2 1 N36 2877 NW 7 19421 P 10/19-11 7 1 0 54 33 S 3 3 2 1 N33 4014 NW 8 31040 P 10/19-12 8 1 0 56 31 SE 3 3 2 1 NW33 5152 NW 9 42659 F 10/19-13 8 1 0 57 29 SE 3 3 2 1 NW33 5142 NW 9 39643 P 10/19-14 8 1 0 58 29 SE 3 3 2 1 NW33 5132 NW 8 36626 P 10/19-15 8 1 0 59 28 SE 3 3 2 1 NW33 5122 NW 8 33609 P 10/19-16 8 1 0 58 29 SE 3 3 2 1 NW33 4785 W 7 28168 P 10/19-17 8 1 0 57 31 SE 3 3 2 1 NW32 4449 W 6 22726 P 10/19-18 12 2 0 55 33 SE 3 3 2 1 NW31 4112 W 5 17285 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...VAUGHN JONES REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111017.LOWER.01/BOU