FNUS75 KBOU 161920 CCA FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR SKY ISLAND...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 113 PM MDT SUN OCT 16 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A FAST MOVING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CLIP COLORADO LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY PRODUCING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS...RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE PLAINS. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE PLAINS MONDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM EXITING THE STATE. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW AFTER 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....35. MAX HUMIDITY........54%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 9-15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59. MIN HUMIDITY........26-32%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH. GUSTS TO AROUND 38 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 25-36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 7600-8600 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .MONDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....28-32. MAX HUMIDITY........64-70%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 7-13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 13-24 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 8-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6400-7400 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 0300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2300. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....52. MIN HUMIDITY........20%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5-6 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 5600-6600 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100. GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60. WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SKY ISLAND. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/16-13 9 0 0 67 16 W20 31 2 1 W45 9230 W24 197986 E 10/16-14 9 0 0 67 15 W21 33 3 1 W44 9810 W25 219383 E 10/16-15 9 0 0 67 14 W21 33 3 1 W44 10390 W26 240780 E 10/16-16 9 0 0 65 15 W20 31 3 1 W43 8913 W25 200281 E 10/16-17 9 0 0 63 18 W17 28 3 1 W43 7435 W24 159783 E 10/16-18 9 0 0 60 21 W15 24 3 1 W43 5958 W23 119284 V 10/16-19 9 0 0 56 25 W12 20 3 1 W44 4048 W18 80126 G 10/16-20 9 0 0 51 31 W 9 15 2 1 W45 2139 W14 40969 F 10/16-21 40 0 0 47 36 W 7 7 2 1 W46 229 W 9 1811 P 10/16-22 40 0 0 45 38 W 6 6 2 1 W47 221 W 9 1862 P 10/16-23 40 0 0 44 39 W 6 6 2 1 W46 213 W10 1914 P 10/17-00 49 10 2 43 39 W 7 7 2 1 W45 206 W12 1965 P 10/17-01 49 10 2 41 43 W 8 8 2 1 W41 211 W12 2146 P 10/17-02 49 10 2 39 47 W 8 14 3 1 W37 216 W13 2327 P 10/17-03 49 10 2 37 51 W 9 15 3 1 W33 221 W13 2508 P 10/17-04 49 10 2 36 54 W 9 16 3 1 W31 249 W16 3747 P 10/17-05 49 10 2 35 54 W10 16 3 1 W31 277 W20 4986 P 10/17-06 69 10 2 35 53 W12 18 3 1 W33 305 W23 6225 P 10/17-07 69 10 2 39 46 W14 22 3 1 W39 361 W23 7301 P 10/17-08 69 10 2 44 39 W16 25 3 1 W47 417 W23 8376 P 10/17-09 69 10 2 49 34 W18 30 3 1 NW56 474 W23 9452 P 10/17-10 69 10 2 51 31 W21 33 3 1 NW58 2769 NW28 84821 G 10/17-11 69 10 2 52 29 NW22 36 2 1 NW58 5064 NW32 160190 E 10/17-12 64 10 2 52 28 NW23 37 2 1 NW56 7359 NW37 235560 E 10/17-13 64 10 2 53 27 NW22 35 2 1 NW60 7788 NW35 235401 E 10/17-14 64 10 2 54 26 N20 31 2 1 NW63 8217 NW33 235241 E 10/17-15 51 10 2 54 26 N17 28 2 1 NW63 8645 NW31 235082 E 10/17-16 51 10 2 52 28 N15 24 2 1 NW56 8245 NW29 208965 E 10/17-17 51 10 2 49 31 N14 22 2 1 NW47 7845 NW26 182848 E 10/17-18 35 4 1 50 30 N12 18 2 1 NW41 7444 NW24 156731 E 10/17-19 35 4 1 51 26 NW 3 3 2 1 NW43 6261 NW22 122811 V 10/17-20 35 4 1 45 33 NW 3 3 2 1 NW47 5078 NW18 88891 G 10/17-21 35 4 1 43 39 NW 3 3 2 1 NW53 3895 NW16 54970 F 10/17-22 35 4 1 41 45 NW 3 3 2 1 NW53 3295 NW14 42790 F 10/17-23 35 4 1 39 52 W 5 5 2 1 NW54 2695 NW13 30610 P 10/18-00 34 4 1 39 55 W 5 5 2 1 NW54 2094 NW10 18430 P 10/18-01 34 4 1 35 65 W 5 5 2 1 NW55 1610 NW10 14112 P 10/18-02 34 4 1 34 69 W 3 3 2 1 NW58 1125 NW10 9794 P 10/18-03 34 4 1 34 69 W 3 3 2 1 NW60 640 NW10 5477 P 10/18-04 34 4 1 34 68 W 3 3 2 1 NW62 548 NW 9 4436 P 10/18-05 34 4 1 34 67 W 3 3 2 1 NW64 455 NW 8 3396 P 10/18-06 13 0 0 32 69 NW 3 3 2 1 NW67 363 NW 7 2356 P 10/18-07 13 0 0 31 70 NW 3 3 2 1 NW69 373 NW 7 2413 P 10/18-08 13 0 0 30 68 NW 5 5 2 1 N71 383 NW 7 2470 P 10/18-09 13 0 0 32 60 NW 5 5 2 1 N71 393 N 7 2528 P 10/18-10 13 0 0 36 49 N 5 5 2 1 N70 2090 N 9 21746 P 10/18-11 13 0 0 41 38 N 3 3 2 1 N68 3788 NW10 40964 F 10/18-12 13 0 0 44 33 N 3 3 2 1 N64 5485 NW13 60183 G 10/18-13 13 0 0 46 29 N 3 3 2 1 N63 5931 NW13 67250 G 10/18-14 13 0 0 49 24 N 5 5 2 1 N63 6377 NW14 74318 G 10/18-15 13 0 0 50 23 N 5 5 2 1 N62 6822 NW14 81385 G 10/18-16 13 0 0 52 20 N 5 5 2 1 N62 6599 NW14 76504 G 10/18-17 13 0 0 51 21 N 6 6 2 1 N61 6375 NW13 71624 G 10/18-18 9 1 0 50 21 NE 6 6 2 1 N60 6151 NW13 66743 G 10/18-19 9 1 0 47 25 N 6 6 2 1 N59 4441 N 9 45679 F 10/18-20 9 1 0 42 33 N 6 6 2 1 N56 2732 N 7 24615 P 10/18-21 9 1 0 39 39 N 5 5 2 1 N53 1022 N 3 3551 P 10/18-22 9 1 0 37 45 NW 3 3 2 1 N51 872 N 3 2590 P 10/18-23 9 1 0 35 52 NW 3 3 3 1 N48 722 NW 2 1628 P 10/19-00 6 1 0 35 54 W 2 2 3 1 N47 572 CALM 666 P 10/19-01 6 1 0 32 62 W 2 2 3 1 NW46 462 W 2 640 P 10/19-02 6 1 0 31 64 W 2 2 3 1 NW46 352 W 2 614 P 10/19-03 6 1 0 31 60 W 2 2 3 1 NW46 242 W 2 588 P 10/19-04 6 1 0 31 59 W 2 2 3 1 NW45 225 W 3 605 P 10/19-05 6 1 0 31 58 W 3 3 3 1 NW44 208 W 3 622 P 10/19-06 6 1 0 29 61 W 3 3 3 1 NW44 191 W 3 638 P 10/19-07 6 1 0 28 62 W 3 3 1 10/19-08 6 1 0 27 62 SW 5 5 1 10/19-09 6 1 0 29 54 SW 5 5 1 10/19-10 6 1 0 35 42 SW 5 5 1 10/19-11 6 1 0 43 30 SW 5 5 1 10/19-12 8 1 0 46 26 S 5 5 1 10/19-13 8 1 0 49 22 S 5 5 1 10/19-14 8 1 0 54 18 S 6 6 1 10/19-15 8 1 0 55 18 S 6 6 1 10/19-16 8 1 0 58 15 S 6 6 1 10/19-17 8 1 0 57 16 S 6 6 1 10/19-18 14 2 0 56 16 S 6 6 1 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...DAVE HOWARD REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111017.SKYIS.01/BOU